The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

54th Annual Green Gator

Div II Mixed Épée

Sunday, February 2, 2020 at 1:30 PM

Southwest Recreation Center - Gainesville, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BOWDEN William	-	-	4%	19%	44%	32%
2	MAVRODIEV Nickolay	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
3	GATZA Logan	-	-	7%	36%	57%
3	CHENG Ava	-	3%	20%	44%	32%
5	PINERO Jose	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
6	DULISSE ALeX	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
7	MCGRATH Russell	-	1%	7%	28%	42%	21%
8	PROCTER Jonathan	2%	20%	44%	31%	4%
9	CHAKRABORTY Rishi Narayan	-	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	9%
10	KIM Jeff	1%	15%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
11	HOLT Graham	-	-	4%	27%	46%	22%
12	BEHENSKY Brenna	-	2%	12%	28%	34%	20%	5%
13	PORTER Stephany	5%	27%	43%	21%	3%	-
14	MARIN Lucas	-	-	5%	24%	47%	24%
15	EDWARDS Darby	19%	45%	30%	6%	-	-
16	PROVATAS Eustratios	1%	8%	32%	38%	18%	3%
17	CUNNINGHAM. John	-	-	2%	16%	41%	34%	7%
18	FULLERTON Joshua	-	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%
19	TAUBLER Michelle	3%	24%	42%	26%	5%
20	SHELANDER Connor	6%	30%	41%	20%	3%
21	MCFARLAND John	2%	17%	38%	33%	9%
23	BETTS Anthony	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	5%	-
24	SAN JUAN Carlos	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
25	HEINZE Luke	-	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
26	CORDERO Allison	3%	18%	37%	30%	10%	1%
27	ASH Neil	9%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-
28	LORES Alicia	2%	13%	32%	34%	17%	3%
29	STOKES Courtney	3%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%	-
30	PATEL Shloke	6%	32%	42%	18%	2%
32	LEVENTHAL Michael	3%	24%	42%	26%	6%	-
36	BANNON William	-	3%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
37	LOVE Georgina	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
38	KOVACS Timothy	-	3%	14%	33%	34%	14%	2%
39	RILEY Grace	43%	40%	15%	3%	-	-	-
40	SPERRY Gregory	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
41	SCHOEN Michelle	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%
42	WOLF Christopher	55%	36%	8%	1%	-
43	BORELLI Isabella	57%	35%	7%	1%	-	-
44	CAMERINO Adam	1%	13%	32%	33%	17%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.