Mission RJCC #2 | Foil & Women's Sabre ONLY - Opens 9/16

Junior Women's Saber

Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 12:15 PM

Rocky Point, NY - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BLUM Leah I.	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	22%
2	CARVALHO Isabela A.	-	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	13%
3	MORALES Jessica Y.	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
3	SHOMAN Jenna	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
5	ALCEBAR Kayla	-	4%	20%	39%	29%	7%
6	SHEALY Maggie	-	-	-	5%	23%	44%	28%
7	KOO Samantha	-	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%
8	SATHYANATH Kailing	-	1%	10%	33%	41%	15%
9	BROWN Emma	-	-	3%	16%	38%	33%	9%
10	YUN Maya	-	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	11%
11	SHOMAN Miriam	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	13%	2%
12	CHANG Josephine S.	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
13	LEVITIS Danielle	3%	20%	40%	28%	9%	1%
14	CHIOLDI Mina	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	12%
15	DARINGA Arianna	1%	11%	34%	36%	15%	3%	-
16	ATLURI Sara V.	1%	8%	29%	39%	20%	3%
17	SLOBODSKY Sasha L.	7%	34%	39%	17%	3%	-
18	SUBRAMANIAN Nitika	-	3%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
19	JIN Olivia P.	4%	34%	40%	18%	4%	-
20	PRIEUR Lauren	-	8%	30%	39%	20%	3%
21	SHIH Christina	5%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%	-
22	BAKER Audrey C.	2%	20%	40%	29%	8%	1%
23	NEWELL Alexia C.	-	6%	26%	40%	23%	4%
23	LIGH Erenei J.	7%	33%	39%	18%	4%	-
25	LIGH Karis	78%	20%	2%	-	-	-
26	SULLIVAN Kate	41%	43%	14%	2%	-	-	-
27	ALMEIDA KADAR Rebeka	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-	-
28	BEVACQUA Aria F.	1%	10%	33%	38%	16%	3%	-
29	NGUYEN Ella	19%	46%	28%	6%	1%	-	-
30	NAYAK Anika	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
31	HORAN Alexa	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
32	KAPOOR Anika	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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