Athens Fencing Open 2021

Mixed Épée

Saturday, October 23, 2021 at 9:00 AM

Georgia Square Mall - Athens, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JAAFAR Omar	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
2	TREBON Hayden	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
3	MALLOY Patrick	-	-	1%	10%	43%	46%
3	CHAMBERS Matthew	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	9%	1%
5	WANG Maxwell	-	-	2%	12%	30%	38%	18%
6	EVANS Grant	1%	13%	39%	38%	9%
7	WANG Aidan	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	-
8	NGUYEN Audrey	1%	12%	37%	36%	12%	1%
9	DILLE Jackson	6%	26%	39%	23%	6%	-
10	SAYLOR David	-	4%	16%	31%	30%	15%	3%
11	TILAKA Michael	-	1%	5%	18%	33%	32%	12%
12	ZHANG Eric	9%	34%	39%	16%	2%	-
12	JEON Hwidong	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
14	LE Kevin	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
15	CARDENAS Nathan	-	3%	15%	35%	36%	12%
16	MODULLA Yathin	7%	25%	34%	23%	8%	2%	-
17	WEBSTER Davis	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%
18	MERRITT Frederick	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
19	GUNDUBOGULA Raj	-	-	6%	36%	46%	12%
20	DULISSE ALeX	-	2%	10%	26%	34%	23%	6%
21	PATIL Amulya	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
22	DILLE Carolina	3%	15%	30%	31%	17%	5%	1%
23	CHRONISTER Charles	1%	6%	20%	33%	27%	11%	2%
24	CORLEY Avery	-	2%	16%	43%	33%	6%
25	KOKA Ashwin	13%	44%	38%	5%	-
26	CHANG Shane	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
27	RACHEL Dylan	-	3%	14%	32%	33%	15%	2%
28	TAM Ethan	5%	30%	38%	21%	6%	1%	-
29	BARCLAY Khyri	4%	19%	33%	28%	13%	3%	-
30	LEE Daehyeon	13%	43%	33%	9%	1%	-
31	PULLEN Ayah	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%
32	PARK Judy	13%	37%	35%	14%	2%
34	NICKERSON Edward	11%	37%	37%	13%	2%	-
35	KRIEGER Jack	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
36	BURNETTE Aidan	3%	18%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
38	ILENRE Roni	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
39	LIN Kason	12%	35%	36%	15%	3%	-	-
40	WOLF Savana	52%	39%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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