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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	ATANASSOV Vasil V.	100%	100%	100%	99%	76%	27%
2	KAKEHI Nicholas B.	100%	100%	98%	82%	44%	8%
3	YUN Jake	100%	100%	100%	95%	72%	28%
3	STURN Oliver	100%	100%	100%	99%	79%	29%
5	XU Andrew	100%	100%	100%	98%	82%	33%
6	BULL Anderson	100%	100%	100%	98%	83%	36%
7	CHEEMA Hyder	100%	100%	96%	75%	34%	5%
8	VENU Ram	100%	91%	47%	6%	-	-
9	LEWALLEN Reece	100%	95%	71%	29%	5%	-
10	SOMMER Max A.	100%	67%	23%	4%	-	-
11	FAYETTE Julien	100%	100%	99%	91%	54%	13%
12	ALLEN Roland	100%	91%	56%	18%	2%	-
13	SLOAN Beren	100%	88%	43%	5%	-	-
14	BURKET Thomas	100%	98%	78%	38%	9%	1%
15	PI Alexander	100%	98%	73%	32%	7%	-
16	CARL Ryan	100%	27%	3%	-	-	-
17	CASTILLO Sam	100%	96%	73%	33%	6%	-
18	HA Seojin	100%	45%	7%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.