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Y-14 Men's Saber

Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 8:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BERRIO Carter E.	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	59%
2	MCGUIRE Christian	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	13%
3	EICHHORN Lukas H.	-	-	-	3%	17%	41%	39%
3	SU Landon	-	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	23%
5	CHAN Aidan	-	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	9%
6	GUAN Dennis	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	5%
7	BROU Inkosi	-	-	-	4%	20%	42%	32%
8	RADY-PENTEK Charles A.	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
9	HU Christopher	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	32%	11%
10	CHOW William T.	-	1%	6%	22%	39%	28%	4%
11	HUNG Samuel	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	21%	4%
12	SHANKWILER Christopher	-	1%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
13	KWALWASSER Eric	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	30%	9%
14	RODGERS Jacob	54%	36%	8%	1%	-	-	-
15	MAHAPATRA SAMARTH	-	2%	12%	29%	35%	19%	3%
16	PAN Alex	1%	11%	31%	36%	17%	3%	-
17	KALPATHY Rohit	-	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
18	JORGESON Charlie	-	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%
19	LIU Vince	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	3%
20	NGUYEN Anthony	5%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
21	ZHOU Hudson L.	-	1%	10%	29%	38%	19%	2%
22	MONTALVO Emmeric	2%	17%	36%	31%	12%	2%	-
23	STORER Julian	5%	24%	36%	25%	9%	1%	-
24	DUDNICK Christian	2%	12%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
25	BELL III Alfred (Tripp) R.	-	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
26	DECK Tyson	8%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-	-
27	LIN Philip T.	-	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
27	YADAV Lakshya	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
29	GUREVICH Savely	15%	39%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
30	VENU Ram	5%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
31	GUYDOUK Alexey	12%	36%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
31	PARKILA Lukas	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
33	MONTALVO ashur	29%	42%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
34	STOLL Fuller	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-
35	HUTTON Sawyer	52%	37%	9%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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