THE ORLANDO CHALLENGE SYC & RCC Reg Opens 4/8

Y-14 Women's Épée

Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 8:00 AM

Orlando, FL - Orlando, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KORFONTA Jolie	-	-	1%	11%	40%	48%
2	WITTER Catherine A.	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
3	WATTANAKIT Anda	-	1%	11%	35%	41%	11%
3	BROWN Hannah	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
5	BECKMAN Ana	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	18%
6	MUN Brianna K.	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
7	LEE Camilla	3%	22%	40%	27%	6%	-
8	BURCHETT Victoria	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
9	CREMONA Viola Maria	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	32%
10	PULLEN Ayah	-	6%	25%	40%	24%	4%
11	CARRIER Meredith	4%	25%	39%	24%	7%	1%
12	LEE yat ching	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	22%
13	NIX Reagan	1%	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%
14	LEE Olivia	4%	20%	35%	29%	11%	1%
15	PATIL Amulya	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	7%
16	CHANG Ella	15%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
17	WALLER DEL VALLE Andrea	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
18	HERR Jessica	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
19	HAYNES Antonia	14%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-
20	FERREIRA DE MELO Adriana	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
21	MIRZA Annoshae	1%	14%	34%	34%	15%	2%
22	FERNLUND Helen	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-
23	GUAN Isabella	6%	30%	40%	20%	4%	-
24	NEELAM Neha	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
25	WONG Caitlin	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	1%
26	WALLER DEL VALLE Alexandra	28%	43%	23%	5%	1%	-
27	KUMAR Anusha	1%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%
28	FIGUEROA Mariah	23%	45%	26%	6%	1%	-
29	DAVIS Elisabeth	57%	34%	8%	1%	-	-
30	MCHENRY Royal	49%	39%	11%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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