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Neil Lazar Div1A/Div2/Vet ROC

Div II Women's Saber

Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 3:30 PM

New Haven, CT - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SADOVA Olga	100%	100%	96%	78%	41%	9%
2	HE Lizbeth	100%	100%	98%	89%	61%	21%
3	OBLONSKY Natalia	100%	100%	96%	80%	46%	12%
3	FESTA Carina	100%	95%	73%	36%	10%	1%
5	JEONG Katie	100%	100%	97%	82%	49%	13%
6	BERNSTEIN Aiden S.	100%	98%	81%	44%	13%	2%
7	KHAN Alissa	100%	98%	87%	57%	23%	4%
8	NAYAK Esha	100%	96%	71%	32%	8%	1%
9	WU Helen	100%	100%	98%	86%	54%	16%
10	YANG Jenny J.	100%	91%	61%	24%	4%	-
11	SCHULZE Seunghee	100%	90%	60%	24%	5%	-
12	NAYAK Indra	100%	100%	97%	80%	43%	11%
13	NAYAK Mira	100%	90%	59%	24%	5%	-
14	MASTRONARDI Laura	100%	100%	98%	88%	57%	18%
15	GIBEK Victoria	100%	95%	74%	37%	10%	1%
16	NAYAK Anika	100%	81%	43%	13%	2%	-
17	GORDON Sharon	100%	95%	73%	37%	10%	1%
18	MARSH Lisa	100%	39%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.