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The Ohio State University Open

Senior Men's Saber

Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 12:30 PM

French Field House - Columbus, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WILLIAMS Nolan E.	-	-	-	-	3%	27%	70%
2	CHEONG Heonjae	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	13%
3	MELLONE Carl (Carlo) J.	-	-	-	-	2%	21%	78%
3	CHOU Stephen C.	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
5	SWARTZ Roscoe O.	-	-	-	5%	32%	62%
6	RESHEIDAT Malik	-	-	4%	25%	43%	25%	3%
7	RICHER Tyler	19%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-
8	FERRIS George H.	-	-	1%	10%	35%	47%	7%
9	ARNIPALLI Shanvanth	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	10%
10	BUERGENTHAL Aaron P.	-	1%	12%	37%	40%	9%
11	RIGHTLER Samuel	-	-	5%	23%	42%	27%	3%
12	LAI Yat Hay Casper	-	5%	31%	41%	20%	3%	-
13	MONTGOMERY Jadon T.	-	1%	8%	34%	46%	11%
14	WANG Nicolas	-	4%	25%	44%	23%	3%
15	MURRAY Peter	6%	27%	39%	22%	5%	-
16	ALOJIPAN Jaydon	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
17	YEN Preston	-	-	1%	12%	43%	44%
18	WANG Jonathan	8%	31%	40%	19%	2%	-
19	HANEY Vincent	-	-	3%	17%	44%	35%
20	NGUYENBA Thaison	22%	51%	24%	3%	-	-
21	SCHARDINE James	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	6%	-
22	LI Qiuye	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%	-
23	KELLNER Taylor T.	-	5%	32%	44%	17%	2%
24	MCCLUNG Gavin	3%	20%	40%	29%	7%	1%
25	GERSTMANN Max T.	3%	19%	45%	27%	6%	-
26	DAUM Alan	12%	37%	36%	13%	2%	-	-
27	LEE Hanho	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%	-
28	WEST Matthew S.	24%	44%	25%	5%	-	-	-
29	STEVENS Jeffrey	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
30	SHEN Christopher	7%	32%	40%	18%	3%	-
31	MISIOLEK Keegan J.	5%	31%	43%	19%	3%	-	-
32	UTLEY James	31%	44%	21%	4%	-	-	-
33	PASZEK Elijah	12%	39%	36%	12%	1%	-
34	WEAVER Charles	10%	35%	38%	16%	2%	-
35	KRAFT Jon	16%	44%	32%	8%	-	-
35	LUNDAY Luke	10%	40%	39%	11%	1%	-
37	JORDAN Christopher	11%	35%	36%	16%	3%	-
38	IDRIS Haashir	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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