BladeRunner ROC+RJC

Div I-A Women's Foil

Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 2:30 PM

RIMAC Arena @ UC San Diego - La Jolla, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JO Mia C.	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
2	SHIH Diane	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
3	YU Seneca	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	21%
3	RANDOLPH Piper	-	10%	32%	38%	18%	3%
5	ESTEBAN Maxine T.	-	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
6	SUN Chien-Yu	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	4%
7	GOMES Rafaella T.	-	-	6%	25%	42%	24%	2%
8	DUAN Konnie	-	9%	31%	38%	18%	3%
9	CHEN Chloe I.	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%	-
10	WONG Cheryl	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
11	SOOD Ishani S.	-	-	3%	18%	42%	36%
12	KOROL Neta	-	-	3%	15%	36%	36%	9%
13	LOCKE Savannah	-	-	3%	13%	32%	36%	15%
14	LI Shuang	-	5%	29%	39%	21%	5%	-
15	CHEW Alexis T.	-	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-
16	SUN Emily	48%	38%	12%	2%	-	-
17	KHOO Lauren A.	-	-	4%	21%	42%	29%	4%
18	HWANG Alison	-	3%	18%	38%	30%	10%	1%
19	DE LA CRUZ Alyssa	-	-	5%	21%	39%	29%	6%
20	TAN Clarisse	1%	9%	27%	35%	21%	6%	1%
21	DE LA CRUZ Eden	1%	6%	24%	37%	26%	7%
22	SUN Ruoxi	-	4%	20%	38%	31%	8%
23	WU Kyra	-	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
24	SHITAMOTO Audrey F.	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	15%
25	MORADI Raiyan N.	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	2%
26	MING YUE	1%	25%	41%	25%	6%	1%
27	KALE Anika A.	2%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
28	PANT Anisha	-	5%	28%	41%	22%	4%	-
29	DAVIS Bonnie Z.	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
30	TALWALKAR Apoorva	-	2%	12%	32%	37%	16%	2%
31	YANG Alice	5%	25%	37%	25%	8%	1%	-
32	BRONDUM Alexandra L.	-	1%	5%	18%	35%	32%	11%
33	LEE Ji Ahn	2%	13%	32%	33%	16%	4%	-
34	HSIUNG Samantha	1%	45%	40%	12%	1%	-	-
35	PECK Maia A.	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
36	KUEN Erica	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	2%
36	DO Leila	24%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
38	WANG Alison	17%	52%	25%	5%	-	-	-
39	YEH Marissa E.	-	1%	8%	28%	39%	22%	3%
40	NICKOLOV Nora	44%	40%	13%	2%	-	-	-
41	KANG Jiyoon	1%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%	-
42	LEE Allison	18%	41%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
43	FERNANDES Thea	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%
44	WANG Robin	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
45	MORALES Paulina	85%	14%	1%	-	-	-
46	MORENO Francesca	96%	4%	-	-	-	-	-
47	HWANG Sophia	63%	33%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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