Fencing Center of Chicago ROC & RJCC

Cadet Men's Épée

Saturday, September 18, 2021 at 11:00 AM

Skokie, IL - Skokie, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	PRABHAKAR Vibhav	1%	11%	40%	39%	10%
2	KULIKOWSKI Adam J.	-	-	6%	34%	59%
3	NGUYEN Tate	2%	14%	33%	35%	14%	2%
3	KOZAKIEWICZ Filip	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
5	VEZMAR Evan H.	-	2%	15%	44%	40%
6	MILLER Lance W.	4%	28%	44%	21%	2%
7	SONN Rohan	-	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
8	SPINA Joseph B.	1%	11%	30%	35%	18%	3%
9	TIKHOMIROV Theodore	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
10	NESTEROV Andrew E.	-	2%	12%	30%	37%	18%
11	MCKEEVER Luca	-	1%	9%	31%	43%	16%
12	KRZYSIAK David F.	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
13	YOON Brian	8%	39%	44%	8%	-
14	CORRALES Victor M.	8%	33%	39%	17%	3%
15	NIKOLOV Peter	1%	11%	34%	39%	14%
16	SILVERS Ari	1%	8%	36%	42%	13%
17	WILSON Benjamin H.	7%	39%	40%	13%	1%
18	SAMUEL Nirmel	-	1%	12%	42%	46%
19	LI Chenyu	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
20	DIVERIS Joseph	11%	39%	37%	12%	1%
21	KARNAS Karol	1%	13%	39%	39%	8%
22	LOISEAU Eliott	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%
23	DENNIS Ethan	-	2%	18%	57%	23%
24	DHAL Leon	41%	45%	13%	1%	-
25	DATTA Purav	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%
26	PRABHAKAR Agasthya	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
27	HUDA Sinan	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
28	RICHARDSON Ray	58%	35%	7%	-	-
29	TASKIRAN Mete	48%	40%	11%	1%	-
30	AGARWAL Adheesh	28%	50%	19%	3%	-
31	SCHWEITZER Liam	13%	38%	37%	12%	1%
32	DWYER John	14%	41%	33%	11%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.