The Austin Challenge SYC and RCC

Cadet Women's Épée

Monday, December 20, 2021 at 9:00 AM

Round Rock Sports Center - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEE Natasha	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	25%
2	YAO KATHARINE	-	1%	5%	21%	39%	29%	5%
3	ORTEGA Ivanna S.	-	-	-	4%	18%	42%	36%
3	LEE REGINA	-	-	4%	16%	34%	35%	11%
5	SUN Renee R.	-	1%	11%	32%	39%	16%
6	LE Jennifer	-	1%	8%	23%	35%	25%	7%
7	SENYUVA Su	-	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%
8	LEE Olivia	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	9%	1%
9	SHIV Avni	-	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	9%
10	DOROSHKEVICH Victoriia	-	-	-	1%	6%	32%	61%
11	YAO Melinda	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	32%	12%
12	KOZLOWSKI Maya M.	1%	6%	19%	32%	28%	12%	2%
13	SKOURLETOS Angelina	1%	8%	22%	32%	25%	10%	2%
14	TOLSMA Chloe (CJ)	-	1%	7%	21%	34%	28%	9%
15	HESS Heidi J.	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
16	NAKA Emily	-	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
17	ZHANG Victoria R.	-	-	4%	22%	46%	28%
18	NEMETH Katherine	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
19	POTAPENKO Margarita D.	-	-	4%	24%	46%	25%
20	RAUSCH Juliana	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
21	GEVA Eliana	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
22	BECKMAN Ana	1%	5%	20%	33%	28%	11%	2%
23	WANG Angelina	4%	20%	33%	28%	12%	3%	-
24	ENRILE Erica	2%	28%	45%	22%	4%	-
25	BARG Margaret	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
26	NIX Reagan	1%	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
27	YERIAN Ayda	7%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%	-
28	HAN Hannah Y.	1%	6%	20%	32%	27%	12%	2%
29	HAYNES Antonia	2%	17%	38%	31%	10%	1%
29	HSIU Elizabeth	7%	33%	39%	18%	4%	-
31	HUANG Lanlan	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-
32	MIRZA Annoshae	15%	35%	32%	15%	3%	-	-
33	CHUANG Ramona	7%	42%	36%	13%	2%	-	-
34	POPOVICI Alina B.	-	3%	14%	29%	32%	18%	4%
35	QIAN Irene	-	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
36	BARG Daniella	-	3%	21%	43%	28%	5%
37	XU Katelyn	1%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
38	WANG Ziqi	-	7%	26%	37%	24%	6%	-
39	GILL Sophie	3%	33%	44%	17%	2%	-
40	ALI Alina	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
41	LEE Camilla	-	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
42	YOUNG VIVIAN	17%	35%	30%	14%	3%	-	-
43	GUO Luxi	20%	37%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
44	PATTI Sarah	85%	15%	1%	-	-	-
45	OPIELA Natalie	74%	23%	2%	-	-	-	-
45	HENNINGER Riley	16%	47%	29%	7%	1%	-	-
47	LIU sherine	71%	25%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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