AFM Div2 ROC and RJCC

Div II Women's Épée

Friday, November 23, 2018 at 12:30 PM

Sunnyvale, CA - Sunnyvale, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEUNG Natalie	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
2	ROTHMAN-HALL Bronwyn R.	-	-	5%	24%	44%	26%
3	SOIN Anika A.	2%	15%	37%	35%	10%	1%
3	PARK Ashley Y.	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
5	JOBALIA Ria	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
7	GERARDIN Marie	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	18%	3%
8	ZHANG Ivyla	40%	43%	14%	2%	-	-	-
9	SMIK Leonie A.	-	-	-	3%	18%	45%	34%
10	WILEY Erica	-	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	14%
11	RYAN Minhuey	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	15%
12	BEI Karen	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	10%
13	UPPALAPATI Sriya	-	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
14	JIANG Corina	1%	7%	26%	40%	23%	4%
15	GOEL Pari	-	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
16	STOJANOVIC Mina	-	6%	26%	39%	23%	5%	-
17	GEBALA Natalie Brooke A.	-	2%	12%	32%	39%	16%
18	DINGMAN Amanda	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
19	WILLIAMS Sarah	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
20	WEBER Nora	-	6%	26%	39%	22%	5%	-
21	KHINNO Julia	16%	41%	31%	10%	1%	-
22	DU Angela	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
23	ESTRADA Anna G.	10%	31%	36%	19%	5%	-
24	HOFMAN Haejung	10%	36%	36%	15%	3%	-
25	WANG Joy	3%	20%	40%	28%	8%	1%
26	TSANG JAFFE Avi	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%	-
27	TERRELL Gabriella	25%	46%	24%	5%	-	-
28	HUANG audrey	42%	44%	12%	1%	-	-	-
30	TAYLOR Francine M.	18%	40%	31%	9%	1%	-
31	CHEN Bella	16%	40%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
32	SHAY Mia	8%	31%	40%	18%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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