Fairfax Challenge Summer ROC/RJCC/RYC/VET - Reg Re-Opens 12/28

Y-12 Men's Foil

Sunday, June 20, 2021 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg, VA - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIN Michael	-	-	2%	15%	43%	39%
2	TANG Owen S.	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	57%
3	LIN James G.	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
3	HUANG Eythan	-	3%	15%	35%	34%	12%	1%
5	MAO Lucas	1%	9%	34%	38%	16%	2%
6	YAO Bradley	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	26%
7	QIAN Jason H.	-	-	7%	30%	44%	18%
8	TANG August L.	-	1%	6%	21%	37%	28%	7%
9	HAN Derek	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
10	FEDELI Francesco	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	17%
11	KETTELLE John	-	3%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%
12	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%
13	TANG Albert	2%	14%	36%	35%	12%	1%
14	RUSSELL Paul	-	1%	11%	34%	40%	14%
15	DHOKTE Neev	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	6%
16	TANG Alexander L.	-	1%	5%	21%	39%	29%	5%
17	TWEMLOW Sacha	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	6%	1%
18	SEMP Iain	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	1%	-
19	JIANG Bowang	-	6%	23%	38%	27%	6%
20	DOELL Ethan	7%	29%	38%	20%	5%	-
21	WONG Jacob W.	2%	14%	37%	35%	11%	1%
22	GRIFFITH MCALLISTER Thomas	3%	19%	36%	29%	11%	2%	-
23	PARRISH Evan	3%	20%	37%	28%	10%	2%	-
24	YU William	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-	-
25	CHEN Hanson	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
26	HUA Aaron	31%	47%	18%	3%	-	-
27	LIU Robert	47%	40%	12%	1%	-	-
28	JONES Jackson	25%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
28	PAZ Luis	11%	38%	36%	13%	2%	-
28	JIN Andy	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
31	BROWNING Michael	6%	29%	39%	21%	5%	-	-
32	CHO Xzander	49%	38%	11%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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