Star Cup RYC/RCC

Y-14 Women's Saber

Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 2:30 PM

Beaver Country Day School - Arts and Athletic Center - Chestnut Hill, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LU Elaine	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
2	MAKLIN Sofia	-	-	-	5%	31%	63%
3	SHINCHUK Ellisha	-	4%	23%	46%	27%
3	MYAT Chloe	-	4%	18%	39%	34%	5%
5	KNOBEL Sophia	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%
6	MEDVINSKY Alexandra	1%	6%	22%	37%	28%	7%
7	MUND Ruth	3%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
8	NAGORNAYA Uliana	-	4%	19%	41%	31%	5%
9	LAGOON Miriam	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	7%
10	CHIARELLI Valentina	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
11	DONG Angel	-	4%	24%	46%	26%
12	CHIANG Melissa	1%	8%	25%	35%	24%	6%
13	KALINICHENKO Yekaterina	1%	9%	29%	40%	19%	2%
14	SRINATH Lyra A.	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	-
15	MALEK Zolie	2%	16%	43%	32%	7%
16	FREEMAN Armine	3%	17%	38%	33%	9%	-
17	KHOST Maeve	2%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%
18	KONNIKOV Esther E.	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
19	MAGITSKY Leila	5%	28%	41%	22%	4%	-
20	RANDALL-COLLINS Shea M.	10%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-
21	LAURI Keira	26%	48%	22%	4%	-
22	NEUMAN Ella	19%	39%	30%	10%	2%	-
23	PROZUMENT Elizabeth	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
24	ATTIA Jasmine	12%	33%	33%	17%	4%	-
25	MARGULIAN Maria	4%	22%	37%	28%	9%	1%
26	HORVITZ Jacqueline	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
27	CHAVAN Arya	38%	46%	14%	2%	-
28	AKULA Roszlynn	40%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
29	GAMEZ Jennifer	7%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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