C & Under + Vet #1 Walk N' Roll

Div II Mixed Épée

Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 8:30 AM

Denver Fencing Center - Denver, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	POCHON Adam V.	-	-	-	-	1%	22%	77%
2	HARR Carver	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
3	DANIS Blake M.	-	3%	15%	31%	32%	15%	3%
3	ZHOU Jiasheng	-	1%	7%	21%	34%	28%	9%
5	GIOVAGNOLI Nolan	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	-	< 1%
6	MCADOO Declan	-	1%	9%	26%	37%	23%	4%
7	GARRISON Andrew T.	-	-	-	4%	18%	41%	37%
8	COLE Matthew	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	30%	9%
9	GOLDMAN Rami	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	29%	9%
10	EBELL Ivan D.	4%	18%	32%	29%	14%	3%	-
11	ENGDAHL Terre	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
12	WHITLEY Gary L.	-	4%	18%	38%	33%	7%	-
13	PETERSON Matthew	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
14	LIU Aaron	2%	14%	31%	32%	17%	4%	-
15	CHOI Kaiden I.	1%	10%	28%	34%	20%	5%	1%
16	WEBER Dick	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
17	HASAN Amar	11%	30%	33%	19%	6%	1%	-
18	MAITLAND Benjamin	1%	6%	18%	30%	28%	14%	3%
18	MCCOWN Ronan	1%	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
20	BUERGISSER Kai	3%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%	-
21	BARANOWSKI Philip	-	-	1%	8%	32%	49%	9%
22	KENT V David	2%	15%	35%	34%	13%	2%	-
23	NOFZIGER Bennett	9%	30%	35%	20%	5%	1%	-
24	BLANCHARD Timothy	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
25	NANNEMANN Chandler	9%	34%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
25	LEWIS Cole	6%	27%	37%	23%	6%	1%	-
27	REID Wesley	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-
28	GAO Zachary	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	8%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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