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Stevenson High School Invitational

Junior Men's Épée

Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 8:00 AM

Stevenson High School Field House. - Lincolnshire, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3
1	OH Matthew M.	100%	51%
2	IVANOV Phillip	100%	87%	30%
3	SUH Ryan	100%	30%	2%
3	ROBERTS Jonah	100%	99%	76%
5	WANG David	100%	79%
7	WANG Tyler	100%	71%	26%	4%
9	VILLANO Philip	100%	97%	77%	31%
11	LEE Daniel J.	100%	93%	31%
12	SENECHAL Alexander	100%	73%	16%
13	REN Greycen	100%	82%	15%
14	YOON Brian	100%	70%	20%
15	WEATHERLY Hugh	100%	18%	1%
16	PETERSON Maddux	100%	81%
19	THOMPSON Isaiah Ezana	100%	93%	51%
23	FELICIANO Damien	100%	27%	1%
24	BOUCHIE Lucas	100%	97%	43%
25	HUANG Xingyuan	100%	86%	35%
26	RAYMOND Rocco	100%	94%	47%
29	GORSKI Marcin	100%	19%
31	PARRISH Mark	100%	60%	10%
32	BINGHAM Drew	100%	90%	49%	9%
33	SHERBORNE John Elliott IV	100%	82%	32%
47	KOCIECKI Kacper	100%	49%
48	CASH Max	100%	89%	49%	9%
53	GREENFIELD David N.	100%	21%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.