The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Stevenson High School Invitational

Junior Women's Saber

Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 1:30 PM

Stevenson High School Field House. - Lincolnshire, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3
1	SOBOT Victoria	1%	13%	58%	28%
2	WALKER ZaNiya	39%	45%	15%	1%
3	ISBERG Natalie	100%
3	GEIGER Abigail	71%	29%
5	GRZESIAK Brianna	5%	56%	36%	4%
6	LAROYIA Mira	-	8%	53%	39%
8	LAWN Rachel	3%	23%	50%	24%
9	WILSON Madison	78%	22%
11	SONI Ahania	1%	11%	43%	46%
15	KHOSLA Annika	1%	19%	48%	32%
18	KIM Joyce	29%	71%
19	JOSHI Vibha	50%	50%
21	LEVINSON Genevieve	3%	24%	47%	26%
27	SIERRA Alexandria	80%	18%	1%	-
29	BYRNES Rebecca	45%	47%	8%	-
31	YANG Angelina	22%	78%
33	SANTILLAN Esmeralda	31%	50%	17%	2%
36	BENZ Addison	50%	50%
40	MCCAWLEY Madeleine	16%	44%	34%	6%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.