Gold Finch ROC/RJCC/RYC/VET - Reg Opens 1/4

Junior Women's Épée

Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 12:00 PM

King of Prussia, PA - King of Prussia, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HUSISIAN Hadley N.	-	-	-	-	-	9%	90%
2	NI Emma	-	-	1%	11%	31%	39%	17%
3	ZHANG Tina Tianyi	-	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	16%
3	SMITH Grace L.	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
5	NGUYEN Kira	-	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
6	ZIGALO Elizabeth	-	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	9%
7	SMOTRITSKY Mia	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	12%	-
8	LUO Ashley	-	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
9	DAMRATOSKI Anna Z.	-	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
10	MAO Amy	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	19%
11	LU Junyao	-	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
12	REID Anousheh	-	2%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
13	LI Alisha	4%	21%	38%	27%	9%	1%	-
14	LIN Elaine	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%
15	SAAL Anna	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%
16	FURMAN Maria	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%	-
17	WITTE Vera	-	4%	19%	37%	29%	10%	1%
18	FENG ge	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%	-
19	GLASSNER Sophia Rose S.	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	3%
20	LONADIER Keira	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
21	HILL Phoebe	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	5%	1%
22	SZEWC Alexandra	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	18%	3%
23	TOLBA Salma	-	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%
24	PAN Michelle	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%	-
25	SHU Youshan	12%	34%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
26	MING Cynthia	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	6%
27	ABRAMSON Mariela R.	7%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-
28	MORIN Jenna	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
29	RAI Ananya	14%	38%	34%	11%	2%	-	-
30	MUKHERJEE Aanya	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
31	MINOR Lindsey	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
32	HOSANAGAR Inchara	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
33	BENZAN India	12%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
34	CHANG Ella	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-
35	ZENG Katrina	4%	21%	36%	27%	10%	1%	-
36	MAMEDOVA Farah	27%	43%	23%	5%	1%	-	-
37	LOUGHLIN Ariana	21%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
38	JOHN Venus	24%	44%	26%	6%	1%	-	-
39	APPLEBEE Andralyn	18%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
40	GOGINENI Gamana	38%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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