Gold Finch ROC/RJCC/RYC/VET - Reg Opens 1/4

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 12:00 PM

King of Prussia, PA - King of Prussia, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	TAN Kaitlyn N.	-	-	1%	10%	40%	49%
2	ZHANG Alina C.	-	-	-	4%	36%	59%
3	EYER Hailey M.	-	-	3%	27%	70%
3	CHO Rebecca H.	-	-	1%	12%	42%	45%
5	WANG Jasmine	-	5%	26%	44%	21%	3%
6	LEE Lavender	-	-	2%	19%	56%	23%
7	CHEN Renee	-	6%	27%	44%	20%	3%
8	YANG Iris	-	3%	19%	39%	30%	8%
9	WONG Sophia M.	-	-	1%	13%	44%	42%
10	SIMONOV Dasha	-	1%	11%	35%	41%	11%
11	ZHAO Aileen Y.	-	-	4%	26%	50%	19%
12	SHMAY Anastasia	2%	20%	52%	24%	2%
13	ROY Layla	-	-	5%	27%	47%	20%
14	GU Emily	-	6%	24%	42%	24%	4%
15	ZHOU Catherine	13%	43%	33%	10%	1%	-
16	SHIM Grace	13%	38%	35%	12%	1%	-
17	NISSINOFF Alexandra	-	-	6%	26%	44%	25%
18	YURKOVA Mariia	2%	15%	39%	33%	11%	1%
19	BRANDON Fionnoula	8%	33%	42%	16%	2%	-
20	CHOW Annabelle	-	4%	30%	54%	12%
21	KOKES Gwendolen	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	15%
22	DAI Zizhuo (Zizi)	27%	48%	22%	3%	-	-
23	PAULUS Sloane	7%	44%	38%	11%	1%	-
24	MARTIRE Alessandra	18%	44%	31%	7%	-	-
25	MARKOVSKY Nina	10%	34%	38%	15%	2%	-
26	WANG Reese	51%	41%	8%	-	-
27	SHTROM Uma A.	31%	45%	21%	3%	-	-
28	LEVY Avery	2%	20%	45%	28%	6%	-
29	GOLBIN Ariella J.	14%	45%	31%	8%	1%	-
30	BERGEL Daphne	50%	39%	9%	1%	-	-
31	PAULUS Isabella	28%	44%	23%	4%	-	-
32	HUBERT AVA CLAIRE	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-
33	LENZ Zoe N.	1%	10%	35%	43%	10%	1%
34	ROHRING Anna L.	24%	54%	20%	2%	-
35	SAXENA Anahita	9%	39%	39%	12%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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