The Austin Challenge SYC & RCC - Reg Re-Open 1/18

Y-14 Women's Épée

Sunday, April 4, 2021 at 1:00 PM

Round Rock, TX - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	RUNIONS Emersyn	-	-	1%	7%	36%	57%
2	ORTEGA Ivanna S.	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	15%
3	SEBASTIAN Felicity A.	-	-	-	1%	6%	32%	61%
3	ZIGALO Elizabeth	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
5	PADHYE Tanishka	-	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	30%
6	NGUYEN Tallulah	-	1%	9%	33%	45%	12%
7	ZHANG Victoria R.	-	-	4%	16%	33%	34%	13%
8	SENYUVA Su	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
9	KORKIN Alice	3%	21%	37%	27%	10%	2%	-
10	YAO KATHARINE	-	-	5%	21%	39%	29%	5%
11	KIM Zoe L.	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%
12	CALDERA Lexi I.	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
13	HESS Heidi J.	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
14	LEE Rachel	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	21%	4%
15	WITTER Catherine A.	3%	18%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
16	BUSH emma	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	8%	1%
17	YAO Melinda	-	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%
18	SUN Renee R.	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
19	YERIAN Ayda	5%	22%	35%	26%	10%	2%	-
20	YU Bailey	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
21	SKOURLETOS Angelina	1%	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
22	POTAPENKO Margarita D.	-	-	4%	16%	34%	33%	12%
23	NIX Reagan	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-
24	PHUKAN Indra	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
25	VAN VACTER Madelynn	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
26	LEE REGINA	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
27	QIAN Irene	1%	8%	28%	37%	22%	5%	-
28	NGUYEN Jolie T.	-	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%
29	MUN Brianna K.	2%	12%	35%	38%	13%	1%
30	SHIV Avni	18%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-
31	KUDRYAVTSEVA Margarita	1%	7%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%
32	NEMETH Katherine	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	1%
33	GADDE Neha	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
34	KOKES Gwendolen	4%	18%	34%	29%	12%	3%	-
35	GEVA Eliana	5%	25%	42%	24%	5%	-
36	ALI Alina	24%	43%	26%	7%	1%	-
37	LIN Ashley	36%	43%	17%	3%	-	-	-
38	KINDEL Amara	18%	44%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
39	DECKER Rianna	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
40	READ Lyla	65%	29%	5%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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