3rd Annual Socal Clash RYC and RJC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Sunday, October 17, 2021 at 3:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Joy Zhaoyi	-	-	-	-	7%	44%	49%
2	HSU Kaylin	1%	7%	25%	38%	25%	4%
3	AYUPOVA AMELIYA	-	-	1%	8%	35%	55%
3	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
5	SUN Chloe	-	-	-	6%	34%	60%
6	KIM Rachel	-	-	6%	24%	43%	26%
7	PENG Charlotte	-	-	2%	13%	39%	41%	5%
8	HO Addison	1%	8%	29%	38%	20%	4%
9	REN Kayley	-	4%	21%	40%	30%	5%
10	DESAI Esha	3%	23%	46%	23%	4%	-	-
11	DENG Melissa	5%	32%	43%	18%	2%	-
12	MENG Annabel	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
13	SWANSON Alexa	9%	30%	36%	19%	4%	-
14	SAIFEE Lamya	13%	40%	34%	12%	2%	-
15	LUO Miranda	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%	2%
16	MIYASHIRO Katelyn	2%	12%	31%	34%	18%	3%
17	WYNN Kylie	-	2%	15%	37%	37%	9%
18	LUNA BELTRAN Paola	-	1%	6%	28%	39%	22%	4%
19	DUAN Sophie	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	8%
20	ZHANG Ivy	4%	22%	38%	27%	7%	-
21	HAN Gian	5%	25%	40%	25%	5%	-
22	LEE SEO YOOL	32%	43%	21%	4%	-	-
23	KIM Sydney	6%	31%	40%	20%	4%	-
24	GARNICA katya valentina	-	6%	34%	43%	16%	1%
25	ANDONIAN Lauren	36%	42%	18%	3%	-	-
26	CUI alivia	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
27	LI Joy	34%	45%	18%	3%	-	-	-
28	DENG Claire	-	2%	15%	37%	35%	10%	-
29	SAIFEE Zahra	25%	48%	23%	4%	-	-	-
30	LENK Sophie	14%	35%	34%	14%	3%	-
31	UHLIG Natalie	52%	38%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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