3rd Annual Socal Clash RYC and RJC

Y-10 Men's Épée

Sunday, October 17, 2021 at 3:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG Joey	-	1%	8%	32%	40%	18%	2%
2	HUANG Yidong Allen	-	1%	7%	24%	39%	25%	4%
3	MULCAHY Sebastian	-	-	2%	14%	39%	37%	8%
3	RONG Gordon	11%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-	< 1%
5	PARK Sangwook	-	-	-	2%	12%	38%	49%
6	ENG Kyler	-	-	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%
7	ZHOU Shawn	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
8	YAO Tristan	2%	16%	36%	31%	12%	2%	-
9	WU Nathan	2%	13%	32%	35%	15%	3%	-
10	WONG Alexander	-	1%	6%	20%	34%	29%	9%
11	AZAMOV Samir	-	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
12	CHIEN Ian	3%	25%	40%	25%	6%	1%	-
13	QU RuiTing	-	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%
14	CHEN Aiden	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
15	WARK William	13%	36%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
16	SCHWARTZMAN Ethan	1%	10%	32%	37%	17%	3%	-
17	RAHMAN Ali	-	-	2%	15%	39%	36%	7%
18	FERRIERE Theo	-	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
19	JAMES Kaden	8%	46%	34%	10%	2%	-	-
20	AZAMOV Saeed-Azeem	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
21	SHOURIE Neel	12%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-	-
22	DAI Chengwen	-	1%	9%	27%	38%	21%	3%
23	KIM Evan	-	5%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
24	SHOURIE Seth	12%	32%	33%	18%	5%	1%	-
25	RONG Marcus	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-	-
26	LI Stephen	1%	19%	45%	28%	7%	1%	-
27	DANKBERG Nathan	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%	-
28	CHANG Ryan	69%	27%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.