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The 2018 Austin Challenge SYC & RCC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Friday, December 21, 2018 at 11:30 AM

Round Rock, TX - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG Elizabeth	-	1%	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%
2	ORTEGA Ivanna S.	-	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	11%
3	MALDONADO Pilar I.	-	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	24%
3	WANG Karen	-	-	-	2%	14%	42%	41%
5	SUN XiaoQi	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	13%
6	XING Carol	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
7	RUNIONS Emersyn	-	1%	9%	26%	37%	22%	5%
8	LIU Christina A.	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	11%
9	CHEN Zhengnan(Janet)	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	22%
10	YU Bailey	4%	18%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
11	MEHROTRA Anya	3%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
12	HAMILTON Nina M.	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%	-
13	BALAKRISHNAN Monica S.	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
14	PALMER Amelia C.	12%	39%	35%	13%	2%	-
15	KIM Zoe L.	-	-	2%	11%	30%	41%	16%
16	BARRETT Elisabeth	7%	29%	37%	21%	5%	1%	-
17	GITHENS Gracyn J.	1%	8%	27%	36%	22%	5%	-
18	MIN MAGNOLIA	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	29%	9%
19	DANIEL Olivia	1%	8%	26%	37%	22%	5%
20	CHERNIS Zoe C.	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	2%
21	GREGORY Aleksandra	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
22	TAYLOR Kiera S.	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
23	CALDERA Lexi I.	11%	31%	35%	18%	5%	-
24	ZHANG Victoria R.	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
25	YAO KATHARINE	3%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%
26	LIM Chloe	13%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-
27	LI Bingqi	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
28	MCCLAIN-YU Eri M.	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	1%	-
29	LO Sabrina S.	10%	37%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
30	BARDINA Kristina	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	2%	-
31	SONG Ella	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%	-
33	WALKER Tatiana	32%	45%	20%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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