Fortune Fencing ROC, VET & RJCC Reg Opens 2/1

Div I-A Women's Foil

Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 12:00 PM

Anaheim, CA - Anaheim, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PUSTILNIK Nicole	-	-	-	-	-	11%	89%
2	CHENG Evelyn	-	-	-	1%	6%	31%	62%
3	KNIGHT Skylar	-	-	1%	7%	24%	40%	27%
3	CASTANEDA Erika L.	-	-	4%	17%	37%	34%	8%
5	GRIFFIN Emma G.	-	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	33%
6	KIM Katherine	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	15%	1%
7	CHO Cameron S.	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	2%
8	KOROL Neta	-	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%	-
9	TONG Ophelia	-	3%	17%	35%	31%	11%	1%
10	SUN Chien-Yu	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%	-
11	KOROL Dana	1%	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
12	HWANG Alison	31%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-
13	YHIP Mikaela M.	-	4%	15%	30%	32%	16%	3%
14	CHO Gracie L.	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%	1%
15	KHOO Lauren A.	-	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	5%
16	GOMES Rafaella T.	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
17	SEAL Julie T.	-	3%	13%	29%	34%	19%	4%
18	LEE Brianna J.	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	24%
19	PRIETO Sofia M.	2%	17%	37%	32%	12%	2%	-
20	LEE Alina	-	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
21	SEAL Grace (Gracie) C.	-	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
22	OH Erin H.	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	-
22	SHIH Diane	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
24	SHITAMOTO Audrey F.	1%	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
25	YIN Helen	2%	19%	38%	30%	10%	1%	-
26	DE LA CRUZ Alyssa	1%	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	-
27	RANDOLPH Piper	10%	29%	34%	20%	6%	1%	-
28	LOCKE Savannah	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
29	CHO Taylor S.	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
30	TALWALKAR Apoorva	2%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%	-
31	SULEIMAN Alysa J.	5%	22%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
32	WU Kyra	2%	10%	27%	34%	21%	5%	-
33	IBRAGIMOVA Kamilla	5%	22%	35%	26%	10%	2%	-
34	DUAN Konnie	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	10%	1%
35	HSIUNG Samantha	21%	45%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
36	FERNANDES Thea	6%	26%	37%	24%	7%	1%
37	PENG Amber L.	10%	29%	34%	20%	6%	1%	-
38	XU Marie-Anne J.	7%	25%	35%	23%	8%	1%	-
39	LEE Ji Ahn	35%	44%	17%	3%	-	-	-
40	CABALU Alaina	66%	29%	5%	-	-	-	-
41	PATTERSON Natalia	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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