April NAC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Saturday, April 17, 2021 at 1:30 PM

Fort Worth, TX - Fort Worth, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TABANGAY Heartlyn	-	-	1%	9%	37%	54%
2	TSUI Natalie	-	-	1%	4%	19%	41%	36%
3	JEONG Katie	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
3	DENG Brooke	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	27%	6%
5	KONDEV Elizabeth	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
6	TSE Angelina	-	-	-	7%	38%	54%
7	KURAEVA Vasilisa	1%	10%	32%	39%	16%	2%
8	LEMUS-IAKOVIDOU ALEXANDRA	-	2%	14%	37%	38%	9%
9	YOUNG Charlotte G.	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
10	CHIARELLI Valentina	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
11	MUND Ruth	2%	12%	28%	33%	19%	5%	-
12	MCKEE Brynnley	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%
13	HUANG Rachael	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	18%
14	SHEARER Alena	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
15	BERMAN greta	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
16	HAMMERSTROM Aria	20%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-
17	ZOLLER Noelle	2%	24%	50%	21%	3%	-
18	KRIVOSHEEV Alexandra	-	-	7%	33%	46%	14%
19	CHO-SAYEGH Emily	-	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
20	WANG Callie	6%	26%	37%	24%	7%	1%
21	HUAI Delilah	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
22	BUHAY Kirsten M.	1%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
23	YOUNG Audrey	-	2%	19%	46%	28%	4%
24	KHOST Maeve	5%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
25	BUSH Divina	5%	28%	41%	22%	4%	-
26	CHIANG Melissa	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
27	DUDNICK Morgan	4%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%	-
28	NGUYEN Madeleine	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
29	BLAKE Anna	-	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	3%
30	BUSH Bethany	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
31	KORINTH Jacqueline	68%	29%	3%	-	-	-
32	LEOU Korina	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
33	LEE Madeleine	50%	38%	11%	1%	-	-	-
34	BORGUETA Madison	11%	47%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
35	MALEK Zolie	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%
36	GUGALA Hanna	10%	47%	34%	8%	1%	-
37	KALINICHENKO Yekaterina	-	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
38	NELLIGAN Hutton	48%	39%	11%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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