Mission SYC Reg Opens 3/26

Y-14 Women's Foil

Friday, April 30, 2021 at 1:30 PM

Rocky Point, NY - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHANG Alina C.	-	-	5%	24%	44%	27%
2	TAN Kaitlyn N.	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	53%
3	WONG Sophia M.	-	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
3	LEE Lavender	-	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	7%
5	SU Michelle	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	15%
6	LIU Jaelyn A.	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
7	SEO IRENE Y.	-	-	2%	12%	37%	41%	8%
8	CALISE Ella	-	6%	30%	40%	20%	4%
9	NISSINOFF Alexandra	-	-	6%	26%	43%	24%
10	CHEN Jia P.	-	-	-	-	4%	30%	66%
11	JANG Kimberley	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
12	GU Emily	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	19%	2%
13	CHOW Annabelle	-	1%	12%	35%	38%	14%
14	SOLDATOVA Maria	-	2%	15%	34%	34%	13%	1%
15	CHO Rebecca H.	-	-	4%	18%	37%	33%	9%
16	WILLIS Fletcher L.	-	3%	21%	40%	29%	7%
17	SIMONOV Dasha	-	2%	11%	31%	36%	17%	3%
18	ORVANANOS Anice	-	-	3%	15%	34%	34%	13%
19	EYER Hailey M.	-	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
20	ROY Layla	-	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
21	KOKES Gwendolen	-	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	2%
22	SHIM Grace	1%	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
23	ZHENG Julie	1%	12%	41%	34%	10%	1%
24	CASCONE Emily	-	2%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%
25	YANG Iris	-	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
26	SHA Yi Ling	1%	12%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
27	SHMAY Anastasia	3%	19%	38%	29%	9%	1%	-
28	AMR HOSSNY Sara	-	1%	14%	39%	36%	10%
29	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
30	CHEN Chloe I.	-	6%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
31	ZHOU Catherine	10%	37%	36%	14%	3%	-	-
32	CHARALEL Jessica	7%	37%	38%	15%	3%	-	-
33	WANG Zoie Z.	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%
34	UNGERER Frieda	38%	44%	16%	2%	-	-	-
35	DEVLIN Xeta	13%	39%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
36	WEI Angela	5%	51%	35%	9%	1%	-
37	PAULUS Isabella	42%	44%	13%	1%	-	-
38	GOLBIN Ariella J.	7%	33%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
39	LEVY Avery	4%	22%	40%	26%	7%	1%	-
39	WANG Jasmine	1%	8%	29%	39%	19%	3%	-
41	PAULUS Sloane	13%	55%	27%	5%	-	-	-
42	DAI Zizhuo (Zizi)	45%	41%	12%	2%	-	-	-
43	SHTROM Uma A.	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-	-
43	GANDLURI Sreehitha	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-	-
45	LIU Long	18%	46%	30%	6%	-	-
46	DALBERG Meadow	71%	26%	2%	-	-	-	-
47	DALBERG Violet	87%	12%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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