American Challenge RYC/RJCC Reg Opens 1/15

Junior Women's Épée

Saturday, April 3, 2021 at 8:00 AM

King of Prussia, PA - King of Prussia, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SMITH Grace L.	1%	8%	32%	42%	17%
2	MACHULSKY Leehi	-	-	-	5%	30%	64%
3	LIU Christina A.	-	6%	29%	45%	20%
3	GABERKORN Nadia	-	5%	25%	45%	26%
5	WADE-CURRIE Ava S.	-	1%	12%	41%	45%
6	BAJAJ Nikita K.	1%	6%	24%	39%	26%	4%
7	MING Cynthia	3%	20%	40%	30%	8%
8	MAO Amy	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
9	LIN Katie Y.	-	-	-	5%	31%	63%
10	ZHANG Tina Tianyi	-	3%	20%	46%	32%
11	PAN Michelle	3%	21%	42%	28%	6%
12	KIM Elizabeth Y.	1%	9%	34%	43%	14%
13	TOMASELLO Olivia E.	1%	11%	36%	39%	13%
14	HAFEEZ Hiba	2%	20%	39%	29%	8%	1%
15	GAJJALA Sharika R.	1%	12%	38%	37%	11%
16	LI Alisha	34%	47%	17%	2%	-
17	NGUYEN Kira	1%	8%	28%	40%	21%	2%
18	GUMAGAY Erika L.	-	6%	28%	44%	22%
19	SMUK Daria A.	2%	16%	42%	33%	8%
20	REID Anousheh	1%	13%	37%	37%	12%
21	NI Emma	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
22	FAZZINI Angelina	4%	25%	40%	25%	5%
23	LIN Elaine	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
24	SZEWC Alexandra	1%	13%	36%	37%	13%
25	CHAN Elizabeth	-	6%	26%	43%	24%
26	HAFEEZ Hania	4%	26%	41%	24%	5%
27	MUELLER Emma M.	7%	33%	41%	17%	2%
28	WITTE Vera	14%	45%	32%	9%	1%
29	TAYLOR-CASAMAYOR Maia	1%	11%	36%	40%	12%
30	DAMRATOSKI Anna Z.	1%	13%	35%	37%	14%
31	FENG ge	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
32	VINE Melissa	2%	18%	39%	32%	9%
33	HU Chelsea	33%	45%	19%	3%	-
34	MUKHERJEE Aanya	42%	41%	14%	2%	-
35	DE JAGER Celine	1%	10%	32%	38%	17%	2%
36	YANG Chloe	2%	19%	39%	31%	9%	1%
37	GLASSNER Sophia Rose S.	8%	35%	40%	16%	2%
38	ZENG Katrina	29%	48%	20%	3%	-
39	SHU Youshan	48%	39%	11%	1%	-
40	APPLEBEE Andralyn	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
41	ABRAMSON Mariela R.	13%	43%	33%	9%	1%
42	HILL Phoebe	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%	1%
43	RAI Ananya	52%	38%	9%	1%	-
44	CHANG Ella	20%	44%	29%	7%	1%
45	MAMEDOVA Farah	65%	29%	5%	-	-
46	GUZZI Jordan	46%	41%	12%	1%	-
47	GOGINENI Gamana	61%	32%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.