American Challenge RYC/RJCC Reg Opens 1/15

Cadet Women's Saber

Saturday, April 3, 2021 at 8:00 AM

King of Prussia, PA - King of Prussia, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	PAK Kaitlyn	-	-	1%	9%	36%	55%
2	DELSOIN Chelsea C.	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
3	TZOU Alexandra	-	-	1%	8%	37%	55%
3	NEIBART Fiona	-	11%	34%	38%	15%	2%
5	SHOMAN Jenna	-	-	3%	19%	45%	33%
6	ANTHONY Alexia B.	-	8%	42%	38%	11%	1%
7	BOIS Adele	-	1%	10%	34%	41%	14%
8	CHANG Josephine S.	-	-	4%	20%	44%	32%
9	FOUR-GARCIA Madison	-	-	1%	10%	42%	47%
10	DANK Dina	3%	27%	42%	24%	5%	< 1%
11	MIKA Veronica	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
12	HULSEBURG Kaitlyn	-	-	5%	28%	48%	18%
13	NEWELL Alexia C.	-	2%	13%	37%	39%	9%
14	PRIEUR Lauren	-	5%	22%	40%	28%	5%
15	LEE Hannah	3%	18%	36%	30%	12%	2%
16	SHOMAN Miriam	-	3%	27%	46%	21%	3%
17	CHIOLDI Mina	-	1%	10%	31%	41%	17%
18	SZETO Chloe	-	2%	14%	40%	35%	9%
19	SUBRAMANIAN Nitika	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
20	LEVITIS Danielle	1%	14%	36%	34%	13%	1%
21	BEVACQUA Aria F.	1%	14%	36%	35%	13%	1%
22	YUAN Greta	1%	25%	46%	23%	4%	-
23	LU Elaine	2%	16%	37%	33%	12%	1%
24	CHAGARES Sarah M.	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
25	SINHA Anika	1%	11%	32%	37%	16%	2%
26	KRYLOVA Valery	1%	19%	41%	30%	8%	1%
27	BROWN Delaney	47%	40%	12%	2%	-	-
28	LIGH Erenei J.	2%	36%	44%	16%	2%	-
29	MADA Skye	52%	37%	10%	1%	-	-
30	XU ALINA	19%	59%	20%	2%	-	-
31	ROMAGNOLI Isabella	< 1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
32	NATH Trisha	8%	34%	38%	17%	3%	-
33	SLOBODSKY Sasha L.	5%	29%	40%	21%	5%	-
34	CALISTRI Ava	77%	21%	2%	-	-	-
35	MESSICK Maya	67%	31%	2%	-	-	-
35	ALANGAD Rhea	89%	10%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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