Portland ROC - DV1A, DV2 & VET

Div II Men's Foil

Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 8:30 AM

Northwest Fencing Center - Beaverton, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	PORRAS Cristian	-	1%	14%	39%	36%	10%
2	CHUNG Yeongbin	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
3	KIM Andrew J.	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
3	KIM Jackson	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
5	KRYLTSOV Michael	-	2%	28%	44%	23%	4%
6	MIN Eric	-	1%	7%	30%	43%	19%
7	LI Samuel	7%	26%	36%	24%	7%	1%
8	LISONDRA Niko	-	4%	22%	39%	28%	7%
9	BERK Theodore	-	1%	6%	23%	43%	27%
10	SHAGIDANYAN German	2%	16%	36%	33%	12%	1%
11	GUERRA Gabriel H.	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
12	MASHEVSKY Michael M.	-	-	3%	22%	46%	29%
13	LIM Charles Q.	1%	13%	45%	33%	8%	1%
14	ZENG Michael L.	-	-	4%	25%	46%	25%
15	JAUME Andrei	-	1%	16%	41%	34%	8%
16	PHILLIPS Jasper	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	11%
17	KIM Harrison	10%	30%	36%	19%	5%	-
18	PHILLIPS Konon	-	1%	13%	37%	37%	12%
19	SKYWARK Andrew	-	11%	34%	36%	16%	2%
20	WAKANA Issei	3%	17%	35%	32%	11%	1%
21	MEDVIDOVIC Pavle	3%	21%	38%	28%	9%	1%
22	TSO Chandler	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
23	WU Alistair	49%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
24	TKACHUK Daniel	21%	52%	23%	4%	-	-
25	TALASILA Arush	22%	66%	11%	1%	-	-
26	BIROAN Chaz	1%	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%
27	KIM Teo	72%	27%	1%	-	-	-
28	SERBAN Joseph T.	12%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-
29	GUZ Anatoly	55%	39%	6%	-	-	-
30	SCHUMANN Benjamin	92%	8%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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