International Camp 2022 (Session 2)

Div II Men's Saber

Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 10:00 AM

Hoosick, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KWALWASSER Eric	-	2%	25%	52%	22%
2	KUSHKOV Veniamin	-	5%	28%	47%	19%
3	KIM-COGAN Ryan	-	2%	15%	39%	37%	7%
3	RASTEGAEV Andrei	-	6%	31%	47%	15%
5	MEHAN Nicholas	-	1%	13%	44%	42%
5	KESSLER Nathan	4%	23%	42%	26%	4%
7	RASTEGAEV Evghenii	-	1%	16%	45%	38%
8	KANG Evan	-	2%	13%	42%	44%
9	ZENG Noah	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
10	SHIPITSIN Alexander	-	5%	26%	42%	24%	3%
11	SMIRNOV Nicholas	-	-	1%	11%	39%	48%
12	ZHU Weiqi	13%	46%	32%	8%	1%	-
13	CHAN Aidan	1%	24%	46%	25%	4%
14	EYBELMAN Ariel	8%	29%	39%	21%	4%	-
15	PERRON Robert	1%	8%	34%	44%	14%
16	HUANG Connor	-	8%	44%	39%	9%
17	THORNHILL Kwasi	-	2%	18%	44%	36%
18	LEI Antoine	5%	27%	43%	22%	3%
19	NGUYEN Anthony	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
20	LEUNG Ian	22%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
21	LIM Brandon	14%	63%	21%	2%	-
22	AUDOLY Max	17%	47%	30%	6%	-
23	KATZ Ryan	2%	29%	44%	22%	3%
24	LIU Andrew	46%	41%	12%	1%	-
25	CHO Ryan	39%	43%	16%	2%	-
26	YOSHEA Henry	-	4%	21%	41%	30%	4%
27	LIN Phillip	1%	10%	42%	37%	10%	1%
28	ORLOV Kyrylo	3%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
29	LEVI D'ANCONA Leone	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
30	HALL Noah	14%	47%	33%	6%	-
30	KLAUBER Raphael	88%	12%	1%	-	-
32	JIN David	75%	23%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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