RCFC Thursday Night D & Under Foil #3

Div III Mixed Foil

Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:30 PM

Rain City Fencing Center - Bellevue, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LIPPMAN Sam	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
2	HSIAO Nicholas	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	2%
3	HAN Crystal	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
3	WU Alistair	-	4%	24%	42%	26%	4%
5	LEE Jayden	-	3%	17%	41%	32%	7%
6	LI Samuel	-	-	3%	22%	56%	19%
7	HAN Ashley	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%
8	NISTER Jonathan	-	5%	31%	44%	18%	2%
9	FECAROTTA Ryan	4%	24%	40%	25%	6%	-
10	TKACHUK Daniel	-	6%	24%	40%	26%	4%
11	ROSSMAN Brock	-	-	2%	17%	44%	36%
12	CASTANEDA Keira	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
13	BERKE Dan	-	2%	14%	37%	37%	11%
14	BEAVER Hannah	1%	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%
15	CAMERON Alex	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	1%
16	GUZ Anatoly	14%	47%	30%	8%	1%	-
17	GRANDMONT IV Wesley	1%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%
18	VALENTINE Eoin	9%	36%	38%	14%	2%	-
19	CALPE Rafel	30%	47%	21%	3%	-	-
20	MALAGUZZI Irene	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	18%
21	LEFFLER Graham	-	2%	13%	36%	37%	12%
22	PAEK Noelle	32%	46%	19%	3%	-	-
23	SCHULTZ Nomi	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
24	NAIR Supriya	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
25	KRYLTSOV Grygoriy	1%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%
26	REED David	12%	53%	32%	3%	-	-
27	WANG Judy	17%	43%	29%	9%	1%	-
28	MARGETAN Matthew	2%	22%	40%	28%	7%	-
29	LOUIE Keon	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%
30	WEIL Harry	5%	27%	41%	22%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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