Event Results
Arnold Fencing Classic ROC (Div1A, Div 2, Vet), RJCC, and RYCSurprise Map
Green wins and red losses stand out more as the result becomes less expected.
| # | Name | Bout Difficulty vs. Outcome | Pool Victories | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pool | DE | Exp. | Act. | Diff. | ||
| 1 | SHEN Stephanie | V D V D D V | V V V V | 4.2 | 3 | -1.2 |
| 2 | GORNOVSKY Abigail | V V V V D D | V V V D | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 |
| 3 | SEMIKIN Julia | V V V V V | V V D | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 |
| 3 | SUN MANRONG | V V V D D V | V V D | 4.1 | 4 | -0.1 |
| 5 | KIZILBASH Zara | V V V D V | V D | 3.6 | 4 | +0.4 |
| 6 | HONG Elaine | D V D V V | V D | 3.6 | 3 | -0.6 |
| 7 | MIINEA Elena | V D D V D | V D | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| 8 | BOLES Savvianna | D D D D V V | V V D | 3.0 | 2 | -1.0 |
| 9 | AI Amy | V V D V V | D | 2.9 | 4 | +1.1 |
| 10 | POPA Catherine | V V D V V D | D | 2.3 | 4 | +1.7 |
| 11 | LI Zhenni (Jenny) | V D V V D | D | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 12 | DENG Annie | D V V V D | D | 1.8 | 3 | +1.2 |
| 13 | ZHU-HILL Alice A. | D D D V V V | D | 2.7 | 3 | +0.3 |
| 14 | MANCELL Hope | D D V D V | D | 1.8 | 2 | +0.2 |
| 15 | FAN Elizabeth | V D V D D | V D | 2.4 | 2 | -0.4 |
| 16 | LIN Ashley | D D D D V | V D | 2.5 | 1 | -1.5 |
| 17 | GORMAN Simone | D V D D D | D | 0.3 | 1 | +0.7 |
| 18 | GUSKA Jenn | D D V D D D | D | 0.3 | 1 | +0.7 |
| 19 | CAVRELL Elizabeth | D D D D D | D | 0.9 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Color | Outcome | Difficulty | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victory | Very Hard | 0% to 20% | |
| Victory | Hard | 20% to 40% | |
| Victory | Roughly Even | 40% to 60% | |
| Victory | Easy | 60% to 80% | |
| Victory | Very Easy | 80% to 100% | |
| Defeat | Very Hard | 0% to 20% | |
| Defeat | Hard | 20% to 40% | |
| Defeat | Roughly Even | 40% to 60% | |
| Defeat | Easy | 60% to 80% | |
| Defeat | Very Easy | 80% to 100% |