Statistics Profile

Eamon O'Brien

2007

Seacoast Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1918	1692 - 2143	1895	2068
Épée	Direct elimination	2042	1672 - 2411	1644	2130
Foil	Pool	918	58 - 1777	918	918
Foil	Direct elimination	1450	302 - 2597	1450	1450

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.