Statistics Profile

Ryan O'Dea

2005

Cape Fear Fencing Association

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1538	1366 - 1709	1041	2235
Épée	Direct elimination	1741	1483 - 1998	1289	2003
Foil	Pool	1296	1076 - 1515	985	1392
Foil	Direct elimination	1559	1150 - 1967	1203	1958

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.