River City Rumble

Div III Mixed Foil

Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 12:00 PM

Richmond Fencing Club - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ORLOV Dmitriy	-	2%	15%	42%	36%	5%
2	FORMY DUVAL Christopher	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
3	SMIGRODZKI Nymeria	-	1%	15%	58%	26%
5	SHAH Suhani	1%	7%	25%	39%	25%	5%
6	SHEYNKMAN Leon	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
7	SEMP Brannon A.	-	2%	16%	45%	37%
8	SEMP Iain	-	-	1%	14%	64%	22%
9	MOORHOUSE Emmett	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	2%
10	LEE Emily	-	-	5%	21%	39%	29%	6%
11	PRICE Owen	-	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	13%
12	HSIEH Sabrina	1%	7%	32%	46%	14%	-
13	EATON David	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
14	SHANKS Aidan T.	2%	16%	41%	35%	6%	-
15	HARTMAN Grayson	1%	9%	33%	39%	17%	2%
16	MILES Pam	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
17	HARSHAW Wyatt	3%	18%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
18	MOELLER Virginia	9%	34%	38%	16%	3%	-
19	ZIMSKY James	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
20	WITTKOWER Dylan	5%	28%	44%	20%	2%
21	TOLENTINO SR. Francis	7%	29%	40%	20%	3%	-
22	MORRIS Luke	19%	51%	26%	4%	-
23	TREADWAY Ella	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
24	SHANKS Jennifer	42%	44%	13%	1%	-
25	KOKE Kristen	11%	35%	37%	15%	2%	-
26	POOLE Katherine	9%	36%	38%	15%	2%	-
27	ROUNTREE Andrew	-	3%	14%	29%	32%	17%	4%
28	ALLEN Lily	12%	36%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
29	BURNSIDE Caden	13%	50%	30%	7%	1%	-	-
30	WATTS Jason	< 1%	9%	37%	40%	12%	1%
31	THOMAS Ryan	20%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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