Jeff Wolfe Long Island Challenge ROC

Div II Men's Foil

Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 12:00 PM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DOCTOR Aidan L.	-	-	4%	20%	42%	33%
2	LI Eric	-	-	-	3%	20%	46%	31%
3	SIMA Congyu Josh	-	-	-	5%	29%	45%	20%
3	STRAYER Andrew	-	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
5	DAVIDSON Elliot	-	1%	6%	19%	34%	30%	10%
6	JAUME Andrei	-	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	22%
7	TRAUGOT Owen G.	-	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
8	BOOTSMA Shane-Anson	-	-	1%	10%	38%	39%	12%
9	GOGUEN-COMPAGNONI Nicholas	-	-	-	5%	27%	46%	22%
10	PITERBARG Maxim	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
11	MIALL Steven A.	-	-	-	3%	22%	46%	29%
12	BROWN Alexander R.	-	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	13%
13	KLOTZ Isaiah	-	6%	22%	38%	27%	6%
14	WANG Michael	-	1%	5%	19%	34%	30%	11%
15	MONTALBINE Aidan	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
16	YOON DYLAN	1%	6%	22%	34%	26%	10%	1%
17	LOU Andy	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	8%	1%
18	SHAO Eric	-	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
19	LE Vyn A.	-	-	2%	13%	41%	36%	9%
20	PLASTARAS Trey	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%
21	AMRANI David	1%	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
22	DALBERG Anders	4%	24%	41%	26%	5%	-	-
23	REZA Farazi	-	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	1%
24	LI Arvin	1%	12%	32%	36%	17%	3%
25	GALLER Dave	1%	11%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
26	RNO Kyler	4%	22%	40%	27%	6%	-	-
27	WOODTHORPE Michael G.	-	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%
28	ZHUANG Chuanxuan	5%	24%	40%	25%	5%	-	-
29	MAGALONG William	39%	43%	15%	2%	-	-	-
30	JIA Jing Yu	2%	18%	40%	32%	7%	1%	-
31	TANG xianchi	41%	40%	16%	3%	-	-	-
32	LIU Ryan	2%	16%	33%	31%	15%	3%	-
33	PEDERSEN Charles	22%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-	-
34	CHENG Austyn	37%	46%	15%	2%	-	-	-
35	ROBINS Brennan	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
36	SATTAR Dylan	27%	48%	21%	4%	-	-	-
37	MENG Guangnan	7%	34%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
38	AMEND Jake	64%	31%	5%	-	-	-	-
39	TJON Calum	25%	44%	24%	6%	1%	-
40	THAKUR Gaurav	11%	37%	37%	13%	1%	-	-
41	GRANADOS Luis	16%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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