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Y-12 Women's Saber

Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WEI JoyAnn	-	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
2	LIU Yifei	-	-	4%	22%	44%	29%
3	STONE Coral	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
3	KURAEVA Vasilisa	-	-	5%	23%	42%	29%
5	DHAR Layla	-	-	5%	22%	44%	29%
6	FERNANDEZ Martina	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	13%
7	HAMMERSTROM Aria	-	6%	24%	39%	26%	5%
8	PANTALEON-MAZOLA Amari	-	3%	15%	37%	38%	8%
9	WANG Callie	-	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%
10	MERCHANT Aishwarya	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
10	CHIARELLI Valentina	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
12	BLAKE Anna	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	14%
13	CROOKS Riley	-	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
14	BERNARD Kathryn	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	7%
15	CHAVAN Arya	-	2%	11%	34%	39%	14%
16	FOSS Persephone	-	3%	18%	39%	32%	8%
17	FAN Alexandria	-	5%	22%	40%	27%	6%
18	LEE Tammy	27%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
19	FUNG Iris	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
20	XIONG Alina	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	8%
21	DAVIDOVA Kira	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
22	NADKARNI Marisa	1%	18%	38%	31%	11%	1%
23	LEE Alyson	1%	15%	37%	33%	12%	2%
24	MERMEGAS Olivia	-	8%	29%	38%	20%	4%
25	DHAR Rana	3%	19%	41%	29%	8%	1%
26	TA-ZHOU Emma	8%	30%	39%	20%	4%	-
27	CHANG Norah	5%	28%	40%	22%	5%	-
28	DAMBAL Sasha	-	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%
29	WENG Amber	9%	41%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
30	CASTELO Soleil	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%	1%
31	SEVASTOPULO Sahra	15%	40%	32%	11%	2%	-
32	WANG Emily	35%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
33	CROMPTON Celine	2%	13%	34%	35%	15%	2%
34	KU Alathea-Joy	-	5%	22%	36%	26%	9%	1%
35	CHOI Charlotte	19%	46%	28%	6%	1%	-
36	YANG Shanzhen	39%	44%	15%	2%	-	-
37	WANG JiaQi	15%	40%	32%	11%	2%	-
38	ZHANG Ashley	5%	28%	41%	21%	5%	-
39	LIANG Claire	9%	31%	38%	19%	3%	-
39	POWERS Langley	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-
41	MUTHAPPAN Sahana	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
41	FLEEGER Sophia	80%	19%	2%	-	-	-
43	FORTIN Emily	64%	31%	5%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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