Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 4:00 PM

Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 QIAN Jason H. - - - 1% 7% 33% 59%
2 CHOI JIAN - - - 4% 20% 43% 32%
3 XU Andy P. - - - 3% 17% 43% 38%
3 YAO Bradley - - 1% 7% 28% 44% 20%
5 FEDELI Francesco - - 1% 5% 24% 44% 26%
6 KIAYIAS Aris - 1% 7% 26% 42% 24%
6 RUIZ ALMEIDA Muhammad - 1% 7% 26% 44% 23%
8 WONG Jackson - - - 3% 18% 48% 31%
9 LIU Ethan - - - 3% 16% 43% 39%
10 TANG Alexander L. - 1% 9% 30% 41% 19%
11 ZHANG Aaron - - 1% 8% 29% 42% 20%
12 SUAREZ Adrian - - 2% 12% 35% 39% 12%
13 HE Kyle - 5% 21% 35% 28% 9% 1%
14 GUTH Joseph - - 1% 7% 29% 44% 20%
15 SENIC Lucas - 1% 8% 28% 42% 21%
16 DERRICK Blake - - 2% 14% 36% 37% 11%
17 LEE Brendan - - - 4% 22% 45% 29%
18 DESERANNO Leander - - 3% 20% 42% 29% 6%
19 SIMONOV Timofey - 1% 8% 27% 37% 22% 5%
20 MAO Lucas - - 4% 23% 45% 28%
21 ZHAO Adam - 1% 11% 36% 39% 13%
21 PALMA Nathan Anthony - 5% 22% 39% 27% 7%
23 TWEMLOW Sacha - 2% 10% 30% 37% 18% 3%
24 PARRISH Evan - 1% 9% 30% 41% 16% 2%
25 LI Bradley - - - 2% 17% 47% 33%
26 SHENG Dalton - - 3% 14% 34% 38% 11%
27 PAN Edwin 1% 12% 34% 36% 14% 2% -
28 ALLEN Henry G. - 1% 6% 25% 44% 25%
29 RUSSELL Paul - 1% 10% 35% 40% 14%
30 GERRISH William - 3% 17% 36% 34% 10%
31 ZHAO Nathan - 1% 6% 23% 39% 25% 5%
32 CHENG Logan - 1% 10% 28% 37% 21% 3%
33 DHOKTE Neev 4% 24% 39% 26% 7% 1%
34 CHEN Kyle P. - - 3% 20% 41% 29% 6%
35 CHEN Ethan - 4% 18% 37% 30% 10% 1%
35 XIE Jicheng 1% 10% 28% 36% 20% 4% -
37 TOOMRE Kai - 4% 17% 34% 32% 11% 1%
38 YU ShiYu (Henry) 2% 17% 45% 29% 7% 1%
39 CHO Xzander - 4% 18% 35% 30% 11% 1%
40 YU ShiLin (Harry) 25% 46% 24% 5% - - -
41 MASSIMINO Andrew 1% 12% 31% 34% 17% 4% -
42 LU Nathan 14% 39% 33% 12% 2% - -
43 VADEN Oliver - 1% 7% 26% 40% 23% 4%
44 HUA Aaron - 4% 22% 42% 26% 6% -
45 SUAREZ David 7% 27% 37% 22% 6% 1% -
46 HUANG Jinyao 19% 40% 30% 10% 1% - -
47 HE Ryan 14% 41% 33% 11% 2% - -
48 CHUANG Oscar - 12% 36% 35% 14% 2%
49 CHEN Hanson 2% 20% 39% 29% 9% 1%
50 GRIFFITH MCALLISTER thomas 4% 22% 38% 27% 8% 1%
51 DOELL Ethan - 7% 29% 39% 21% 4%
52 TANG Royce 2% 29% 42% 22% 5% -
53 REN Ryan 5% 23% 38% 26% 8% 1% -
54 YU William 20% 43% 30% 7% 1% - -
55 QIAN Henry 7% 30% 39% 19% 4% - -
56 LEE SIYUN 2% 13% 33% 34% 15% 3% -
57 ZENG Rick - 1% 11% 36% 36% 14% 2%
58 SHAW eric 10% 44% 36% 10% 1% - -
59 JIN Andy 2% 23% 40% 27% 7% 1%
60 ZHANG Alex 4% 21% 37% 28% 9% 1%
61 WEI JR Shan 6% 25% 37% 24% 7% 1% -
62 LEE Junehyuk 7% 29% 38% 21% 5% - -
63 SONG Yuxuan Austin 28% 42% 23% 6% 1% - -
64 LEE JISUNG 11% 35% 37% 15% 2% - -
65 SHAW Spencer 17% 50% 27% 5% - -
66 HARWOOD Gray 2% 16% 38% 33% 9% 1% -
67 MAZAHERI Fletcher 44% 40% 13% 2% - - -
68 WU Thomas 3% 24% 44% 24% 5% - -
69 VISSERS Ryan 2% 15% 33% 31% 14% 3% -
70 BROWN Xander 37% 42% 18% 3% - -
71 SMALL Zachary 59% 34% 6% - - - -
72 YU Rainger 57% 37% 6% - - -
73 WONG Erik 68% 27% 4% - - -
73 BAI Austin 85% 14% 1% - - -
75 FINCH Sebastian 35% 44% 18% 3% - - -
76 NOLAN Tyler 6% 29% 38% 21% 5% 1% -
76 WANG Ruijie (Jerry) 20% 41% 29% 9% 1% - -
78 ROMAN Sebastian 4% 23% 41% 26% 4% - -
79 LIU Robert 24% 44% 26% 6% 1% - -
80 CHEN Hendrick 6% 24% 37% 25% 7% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.