Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 4:00 PM

Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 QIAN Jason H. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 59%
2 CHOI JIAN 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 75% 32%
3 XU Andy P. 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 80% 38%
3 YAO Bradley 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 64% 20%
5 FEDELI Francesco 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 70% 26%
6 KIAYIAS Aris 100% 100% 99% 93% 67% 24%
6 RUIZ ALMEIDA Muhammad 100% 100% 99% 93% 67% 23%
8 WONG Jackson 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 31%
9 LIU Ethan 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 39%
10 TANG Alexander L. 100% 100% 99% 90% 61% 19%
11 ZHANG Aaron 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 62% 20%
12 SUAREZ Adrian 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 51% 12%
13 HE Kyle 100% 100% 94% 73% 38% 10% 1%
14 GUTH Joseph 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 64% 20%
15 SENIC Lucas 100% 100% 99% 91% 63% 21%
16 DERRICK Blake 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 48% 11%
17 LEE Brendan 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 74% 29%
18 DESERANNO Leander 100% 100% 100% 96% 77% 35% 6%
19 SIMONOV Timofey 100% 100% 99% 91% 64% 27% 5%
20 MAO Lucas 100% 100% 100% 96% 73% 28%
21 ZHAO Adam 100% 100% 99% 88% 52% 13%
21 PALMA Nathan Anthony 100% 100% 95% 73% 34% 7%
23 TWEMLOW Sacha 100% 100% 98% 88% 58% 21% 3%
24 PARRISH Evan 100% 100% 99% 90% 59% 18% 2%
25 LI Bradley 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 80% 33%
26 SHENG Dalton 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 49% 11%
27 PAN Edwin 100% 99% 86% 52% 16% 2% -
28 ALLEN Henry G. 100% 100% 99% 93% 68% 25%
29 RUSSELL Paul 100% 100% 99% 89% 54% 14%
30 GERRISH William 100% 100% 97% 81% 44% 10%
31 ZHAO Nathan 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 30% 5%
32 CHENG Logan 100% 100% 99% 89% 61% 24% 3%
33 DHOKTE Neev 100% 96% 72% 33% 7% 1%
34 CHEN Kyle P. 100% 100% 100% 97% 76% 36% 6%
35 CHEN Ethan 100% 100% 96% 78% 41% 10% 1%
35 XIE Jicheng 100% 99% 89% 60% 24% 5% -
37 TOOMRE Kai 100% 100% 96% 79% 44% 13% 1%
38 YU ShiYu (Henry) 100% 98% 81% 36% 8% 1%
39 CHO Xzander 100% 100% 96% 77% 42% 12% 1%
40 YU ShiLin (Harry) 100% 75% 30% 6% 1% - -
41 MASSIMINO Andrew 100% 99% 87% 56% 21% 4% -
42 LU Nathan 100% 86% 47% 14% 2% - -
43 VADEN Oliver 100% 100% 99% 92% 66% 26% 4%
44 HUA Aaron 100% 100% 96% 74% 32% 6% -
45 SUAREZ David 100% 93% 66% 29% 7% 1% -
46 HUANG Jinyao 100% 81% 41% 11% 1% - -
47 HE Ryan 100% 86% 45% 12% 2% - -
48 CHUANG Oscar 100% 100% 87% 51% 16% 2%
49 CHEN Hanson 100% 98% 78% 39% 10% 1%
50 GRIFFITH MCALLISTER thomas 100% 96% 74% 36% 9% 1%
51 DOELL Ethan 100% 100% 92% 64% 24% 4%
52 TANG Royce 100% 98% 69% 28% 5% -
53 REN Ryan 100% 95% 72% 35% 9% 1% -
54 YU William 100% 80% 37% 8% 1% - -
55 QIAN Henry 100% 93% 62% 23% 4% - -
56 LEE SIYUN 100% 98% 86% 52% 18% 3% -
57 ZENG Rick 100% 100% 98% 87% 52% 16% 2%
58 SHAW eric 100% 90% 46% 11% 1% - -
59 JIN Andy 100% 98% 75% 35% 8% 1%
60 ZHANG Alex 100% 96% 75% 38% 10% 1%
61 WEI JR Shan 100% 94% 69% 31% 7% 1% -
62 LEE Junehyuk 100% 93% 64% 26% 5% - -
63 SONG Yuxuan Austin 100% 72% 31% 7% 1% - -
64 LEE JISUNG 100% 89% 54% 17% 3% - -
65 SHAW Spencer 100% 83% 33% 6% - -
66 HARWOOD Gray 100% 98% 82% 44% 10% 1% -
67 MAZAHERI Fletcher 100% 56% 16% 2% - - -
68 WU Thomas 100% 97% 73% 29% 5% - -
69 VISSERS Ryan 100% 98% 82% 49% 18% 3% -
70 BROWN Xander 100% 63% 21% 3% - -
71 SMALL Zachary 100% 41% 7% - - - -
72 YU Rainger 100% 43% 6% - - -
73 WONG Erik 100% 32% 4% - - -
73 BAI Austin 100% 15% 1% - - -
75 FINCH Sebastian 100% 65% 21% 3% - - -
76 NOLAN Tyler 100% 94% 64% 27% 6% 1% -
76 WANG Ruijie (Jerry) 100% 80% 40% 10% 1% - -
78 ROMAN Sebastian 100% 96% 72% 31% 5% - -
79 LIU Robert 100% 76% 32% 6% 1% - -
80 CHEN Hendrick 100% 94% 71% 34% 8% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.