Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 MEHAN Nicholas 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 79%
2 PATEL Rayn 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 57% 19%
3 LIU Victor 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 57% 17%
3 WANG Justin 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 40% 9%
5 VAID Luke 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 63% 20%
6 KIM Ethan 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 74% 30%
7 SO Preston 100% 100% 99% 93% 64% 21%
8 WANG daniel 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 77% 36%
9 WANG Max 100% 100% 96% 80% 45% 12%
10 BREUER Daniel 100% 98% 84% 53% 21% 4% < 1%
11 CLARK Aram 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 36%
12 DAI Zihou 100% 100% 96% 80% 47% 16% 2%
13 GUREVICH Benjamin 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 55% 17%
14 ZHAO Lucas 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 34%
15 NG Jonathan 100% 100% 96% 75% 36% 6%
16 LIN Philip T. 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 36% 8%
17 YU BOWEN 100% 99% 95% 77% 45% 15% 2%
18 HALL Noah 100% 100% 99% 89% 54% 14%
19 NARDINI Nathanael P. 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 37% 8%
20 CHUNG Connor 100% 100% 98% 87% 60% 25% 4%
21 TURECK Nathan 100% 100% 96% 80% 46% 13% 1%
22 PINTO Marcus 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 17% 2%
23 CHAMBERS Miles 100% 100% 100% 96% 74% 32% 3%
24 HU Andrew 100% 97% 79% 45% 15% 3% -
25 OH Aster 100% 100% 100% 96% 68% 22%
26 WAGNER Joseph 100% 98% 82% 48% 16% 2% -
27 NGO Maximus 100% 100% 99% 89% 57% 17% 1%
28 ANAND Rishab 100% 100% 98% 85% 48% 12% 1%
29 ZHAO David 100% 97% 77% 35% 8% 1% -
29 HARDRICK Noah 100% 96% 76% 40% 11% 1% -
31 HUCHWAJDA Alex 100% 99% 90% 64% 29% 6%
32 SOKOLOV Arseniy 100% 96% 77% 41% 12% 1% -
33 CHANG Timothy 100% 99% 89% 60% 24% 4%
34 FENG Brendan 100% 92% 64% 29% 8% 1% -
35 BAI Evan 100% 97% 79% 45% 15% 3% -
36 PINKNEY Derek A. 100% 96% 76% 40% 12% 2% -
37 SONG Aidan 100% 87% 47% 10% 1% -
38 LIU Aaron 100% 98% 85% 56% 24% 5% -
39 JANSEN Noah 100% 88% 44% 10% 1% - -
40 PORTER Dupree 100% 100% 96% 78% 43% 12% 1%
41 CAI fungyu 100% 92% 65% 31% 9% 1% -
41 CARD Seamus 100% 89% 58% 23% 5% 1% -
43 HU Harry 100% 99% 92% 69% 35% 10% 1%
44 FEI Danny 100% 96% 78% 45% 16% 3% -
45 YANG Justin 100% 81% 43% 14% 2% - -
46 WEI Rian 100% 94% 68% 29% 7% 1% -
47 MELUL Jonathan 100% 89% 55% 20% 4% -
47 RINALDI Savio 100% 52% 9% 1% - -
49 NGO Emerson 100% 90% 60% 25% 6% 1% -
50 MEHTA Yash 100% 95% 74% 38% 11% 2% -
51 LIAO Sirui 100% 98% 86% 56% 23% 5% -
52 CHEN Lucas 100% 100% 99% 92% 70% 35% 8%
53 THEUNISSE Oliver 100% 98% 85% 54% 21% 4% -
54 BADMUS Joshua 100% 97% 79% 45% 16% 3% -
55 CHAWLA Abhishek 100% 78% 37% 9% 1% -
56 VALENCIA Jose 100% 95% 69% 30% 7% 1% -
57 MCERLEAN Kellen 100% 98% 58% 15% 2% -
58 GRABOWSKI Stanley 100% 44% 8% - - - -
59 LEE Ezra 100% 61% 19% 3% - - -
60 AVERY Marcus 100% 72% 30% 7% 1% - -
61 CHAVAN Aditya 100% 55% 16% 2% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.