Amazon Open XIX

Senior Women's Épée

Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 9:30 AM

DC Fencers Club - Silver Spring, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JAKEL Sophia N.	-	-	-	1%	12%	51%	36%
2	SWEET Ryleigh E.	-	3%	19%	39%	30%	8%
3	MORGAN Elizabeth (Ella) R.	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
3	PINNAMANENI Drithi	-	-	2%	11%	35%	40%	12%
5	PROKOP Jeannine A.	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	9%
6	GUMAGAY Erika L.	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	29%	9%
7	UPHAM Karolyn	-	6%	28%	40%	22%	4%
8	ZHU Serene M.	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	10%
9	KUDIEROVA Anastasiia	-	-	-	2%	15%	47%	37%
10	MARCHANT Sandra M.	-	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
11	JAKEL Alysa C.	-	1%	7%	24%	39%	24%	4%
12	MURPHY Megan	7%	32%	39%	19%	3%	-	-
13	ASHER Valerie	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
14	BRISK Angelica A.	-	5%	27%	40%	23%	4%
15	GORDET Cristina G.	-	-	4%	21%	43%	31%
16	POWERS Meredith R.	-	2%	13%	36%	38%	10%	1%
17	SIBLEY Elisabeth J.	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	9%
18	LIU Nicole	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
19	KISH Christina	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
20	MACE Eliza M.	-	2%	12%	28%	34%	19%	4%
21	MORET Brighid E.	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
22	AFFELTRANGER Yixuan	-	3%	12%	28%	33%	19%	4%
23	BOWIE Charlotta	-	6%	29%	43%	19%	2%	-
24	VICKERMAN Lilly	4%	32%	42%	19%	3%	-	-
25	JEANDHEUR Carole A.	8%	32%	39%	17%	3%	-
26	UNGURIANU Nika	12%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-
27	MITCHELL Erica	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%
28	VICKERMAN Sofia	3%	19%	37%	30%	9%	1%	-
29	BRASTED Karen (Maggie) E.	2%	16%	36%	32%	11%	2%	-
30	MAGALSKI Mary	4%	42%	39%	13%	2%	-
31	BYRON Karen J.	17%	37%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
32	RIST Rebecca (Beck) J.	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
33	VICKERMAN Aspen	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
34	NATSIOS Emily F.	2%	21%	42%	28%	7%	1%	-
35	JOHNSON Merit	37%	42%	18%	3%	-	-	-
36	GIFFORD Sally	16%	44%	31%	8%	1%	-
37	RASMUSSEN Annika	85%	14%	1%	-	-	-
38	MARTIN Audrey	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-	-
39	HORNER Abby	11%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.