TFC's March 2022 Fence-a-thon and Observational

Div III Mixed Saber

Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 10:00 AM

The Fencing Center of San Jose - San Jose, CA, USA

Results

Birth Year

Reset

Note: Color boxes represent opponent difficulty from the fencer's perspective. Read more.

#	Name	Bout Difficulty vs. Outcome^*		Pool Victories
#	Name	Pool	DE	Exp.	Act.	Diff.
1	KIBBAR Tomer L.	D V V V	V V V V	3.1	3	-0.1
2	DAVIS Jayna M.	V V V V	V V V D	2.2	4	+1.8
3	BAILEY Nate	D V V D	V V D	2.5	2	-0.5
3	SUORSA Markus	V V V V	V D	2.8	4	+1.2
5	MULAGARI Sadhika	V V V V	V D	2.2	4	+1.8
6	SOUTHWORTH Nathaniel	V D V V	V D	2.8	3	+0.2
7	REGANTI Sitara	V V D D	V D	1.6	2	+0.4
8	TSAI Anna A.	D D V D	V D	2.6	1	-1.6
9	LI Li	V D V V	D	1.5	3	+1.5
10	IYER Arushi	V D V D	D	1.8	2	+0.2
11	LI Seth	D V D D	D	1.4	1	-0.4
12	BAVIPATI Smira	V D D D	D	1.6	1	-0.6
13	MARTINEZ Mario D.	D D D D	D	1.9	0	-1.9
14	VANKIRK Avery	D D D D	D	1.6	0	-1.6
15	LAZZARINO Kylie	D D D D	D	0.5	0	-0.5

Legend

Color coded boxes represent the difficulty of an opponent from the perspective of the fencer according to table below. Letters inside the boxes indicate victory (V) and defeat (D).

Color	Opponent's Difficulty	Probability of victory
	Very Hard	0% to 20%
	Hard	20% to 40%
	Roughly even	40% to 60%
	Easy	60% to 80%
	Very Easy	80% to 100%

Explanation

This visual map of the competition helps to understand:

How difficult or easy everyone's pool and the direct elimination path was
How well each fencer performed according to expectations relative to their strength level

Ignoring differences in styles, you should be winning your bouts against easier opponents and shouldn't be upset if you lose against stronger opponents.