January NAC

Vet-50 Men's Épée

Monday, January 10, 2022 at 12:00 PM

San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	O'LOUGHLIN Chris S.	-	-	-	-	7%	40%	53%
2	LEE Tobias (Toby) T.	-	1%	5%	17%	33%	32%	12%
3	CRANOR Erich L.	-	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
3	BARREIRO Darren	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
5	SNIDER Jeffrey H.	-	2%	17%	38%	33%	10%
6	EXUM Travis H.	-	-	-	5%	26%	49%	19%
7	HELGE James R.	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
8	GILLHAM Timothy A.	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	7%
9	FRANK Fred	-	-	4%	15%	32%	35%	15%
10	DEUCHER Joseph H.	-	-	-	3%	20%	45%	32%
11	MEHALL Michael	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
12	KURITZ Marc M.	1%	8%	30%	39%	19%	3%
13	GAINES Aaron	-	1%	9%	28%	38%	20%	4%
14	EMARA Elsayed M.	1%	5%	21%	36%	28%	8%	1%
15	BAILEY Creston P.	-	2%	19%	39%	31%	9%
16	MAYCHROWITZ Matt	1%	6%	19%	33%	28%	11%	2%
17	LUONG Allen	2%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
18	GUMAGAY Paul	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
19	LEE Stephen K.	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
20	KAUFMAN Joel H.	1%	12%	35%	35%	14%	2%
21	WILSON Jeffrey M.	-	-	6%	24%	43%	26%
22	STEWART Robert	2%	13%	34%	36%	14%	2%	-
23	CHEN Steve	12%	36%	36%	13%	2%	-	-
24	LINGVAY Laurance (Larry) S.	-	5%	23%	39%	25%	6%	1%
25	ROOD Alex	-	4%	23%	40%	27%	7%
26	BECK Brian C.	4%	17%	32%	30%	14%	3%	-
27	HARGROVE Charles	-	3%	15%	34%	32%	13%	2%
28	UNGER Marc A.	9%	39%	36%	13%	2%	-
29	CAMPBELL Kenneth	3%	48%	37%	11%	1%	-
30	WEINTRAUB Adam	6%	24%	35%	24%	8%	1%	-
31	LIU Bobby P.	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-	-
32	REID Michael	8%	35%	39%	15%	2%	-	-
33	KONG Li Kuo	14%	38%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
34	BEITTEL David F.	14%	35%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
35	LOGUE Paul	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
36	DUONG John	17%	37%	31%	13%	2%	-	-
37	WIESE Michael	7%	25%	34%	24%	9%	2%	-
38	ROGERS John D.	91%	9%	-	-	-	-
39	KAIN Brad	33%	44%	19%	4%	-	-	-
40	FUHRMANN Amir	58%	35%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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