Duel of the East Coast RJCC/RYC

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 3:00 PM

Valley Forge Event Center - King of Prussia, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHO Rebecca H.	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
2	SHIM Grace	-	5%	34%	45%	15%	1%
3	MILLER Naomi E.	-	-	-	4%	31%	64%
3	LEE Lavender	-	1%	5%	22%	43%	29%
5	NISSINOFF Alexandra	-	-	4%	21%	50%	25%
6	WU Julianna Y.	-	-	1%	15%	47%	37%
7	XU Christine	-	-	1%	12%	44%	43%
8	SHA Yi Ling	-	1%	10%	30%	39%	18%	2%
9	ORVANANOS Anice	-	1%	7%	30%	45%	18%
10	MARKOVSKY Nina	-	1%	17%	49%	28%	5%
11	ZHENG Julie	-	1%	10%	30%	41%	17%
12	GU EMILY	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
13	SOLDATOVA Maria	-	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	7%
14	ROY Layla	-	-	2%	20%	49%	28%
15	ZHAO Aileen Y.	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
16	JIANG Claire	5%	35%	42%	16%	2%	-
17	PAULUS Sloane	28%	45%	23%	4%	< 1%	-
18	PAVE Claire	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%	-
19	ADAMS KIM Natalie	-	-	2%	14%	44%	40%
20	LIU Sophia	-	6%	27%	43%	21%	3%
21	WONG Sophia M.	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	18%
22	PAULUS Isabella	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
23	LENZ Zoe N.	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	1%	-
24	NEUMAN Sophie	1%	23%	52%	22%	3%	-
25	SCARLETT Skye	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
26	HUANG Natalie	-	-	7%	33%	49%	12%
27	YANG Lingting	-	6%	38%	42%	13%	1%
28	LEVY Avery	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
29	DALBERG Meadow	66%	32%	3%	-	-	-
30	LEE emily	11%	34%	37%	16%	2%	-
31	HUNT Abigail S.	6%	27%	39%	23%	4%	-
32	SHMAY Anastasia	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
33	MAESTRADO Ashley R.	6%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
34	LIN Victoria T.	2%	24%	43%	25%	5%	-
35	DENYSIUK Sumajja	15%	38%	34%	12%	1%	-
36	BENNETT Abigail	6%	54%	34%	5%	-	-
37	SA Milla	14%	40%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
38	MEYER Claudia	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
39	WANG Sophie	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-
40	BIENSTOCK Alexis	72%	25%	3%	-	-	-
41	HOWELL Jocelyn	21%	60%	18%	2%	-	-
42	LIU Long	84%	16%	1%	-	-	-
43	CHEN Ying Jung (Winnie)	10%	30%	34%	19%	5%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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