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Junior Men's Saber

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MARGULIES William	-	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	30%
2	WANG Robert	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	16%
3	SAVOY Luca	-	2%	12%	27%	33%	20%	5%
3	GINSBERG Jordan	1%	12%	36%	37%	13%	1%
5	EDELMAN Seth A.	-	3%	15%	35%	36%	12%
6	LUTHRA Arjun	-	1%	5%	22%	43%	29%
7	DEPEW Spencer	-	3%	21%	41%	28%	6%
8	SANDERS Samuel B.	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	12%
9	TRUDNOS Allen	-	-	2%	14%	43%	40%
10	NEVILLE James	-	5%	19%	33%	28%	12%	2%
11	NG Jeremiah	-	-	6%	26%	43%	24%
12	GLOZMAN Justin	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
13	WEBER Mattias A.	-	3%	14%	30%	32%	16%	3%
14	HUROWITZ Max	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
15	HU Andrew	-	6%	27%	39%	22%	5%
16	PERRON Robert	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	10%	1%
17	FIELDS Matthew S.	-	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
18	STAMIS Kyle	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
19	LIU Mingyang Ryan	-	1%	7%	22%	34%	27%	8%
20	NOURELDIN Gabriel	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	17%
21	ZHOU Miles	-	1%	9%	31%	43%	16%
22	HOPPA Luke H.	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	8%
23	ZELAYA Jayson	12%	31%	33%	18%	5%	1%	-
24	VOSS Jeffer	2%	11%	27%	33%	20%	6%	1%
25	GILPIN Samuel	8%	38%	38%	14%	2%	-
26	TANG Shu Hon	7%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%
27	LI Yao (Liam)	-	12%	38%	35%	13%	2%
28	GULLO Ethan B.	2%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%
29	CHENG Hong	41%	40%	15%	3%	-	-
30	XIA Eric	2%	39%	42%	15%	2%	-
31	DEKA Tanush	-	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
32	STUMACHER Ryan	11%	32%	34%	17%	5%	1%	-
33	KIM Andrew	1%	8%	23%	33%	24%	9%	1%
34	CHOU Jack	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	2%
35	TROPE Aidan	38%	41%	17%	4%	-	-	-
36	NAKAR Jaden R.	15%	54%	26%	5%	-	-
37	YOO Maxwell	1%	14%	37%	35%	12%	1%
38	YEUNG Jerry	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
39	DICARLO Vincent	92%	8%	-	-	-	-
40	OU Brian	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	10%	1%
41	LEDERMAN James	2%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
42	DINARDO Anthony	14%	41%	35%	9%	1%	-
42	DELISSER Matthew	9%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-
44	WAGNER Calvin	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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