Manchen Friday Night Foil Open

Senior Mixed Foil

Friday, June 24, 2022 at 6:15 PM

Manchen Academy of Fencing - Whitehouse Station, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KATAYAMA Kevin	-	-	1%	8%	39%	52%
2	EYER Hailey	-	-	2%	11%	38%	49%
3	TRAUGOT Owen	-	2%	18%	51%	29%
3	DAUM Charlie	-	1%	11%	45%	43%
5	DESANDO Michael	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
6	PITERBARG Maxim	-	3%	16%	38%	36%	7%
7	BADLANI Dev	-	1%	14%	41%	37%	7%
8	DESOLA Aidan	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
9	LIGOS Alex	6%	28%	41%	21%	3%
10	GOGUEN-COMPAGNONI Nicholas	-	1%	7%	29%	47%	15%
11	SYOMICHEV Gleb	3%	18%	37%	30%	10%	1%
12	KITAGAWA Eric	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%
13	NIECHWADOWICZ Michael	15%	49%	29%	6%	-	-
14	TORRES Treston	4%	22%	39%	28%	7%
15	LENZ Zoe	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%
16	STURGIS Zachary	1%	16%	43%	32%	8%	-
17	GUPTA Varun	-	2%	16%	42%	37%	3%
18	DZIERZKO Nicholas	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	19%
19	LUM-DEBONO Alex	1%	11%	33%	39%	15%	1%
20	PARK Joseph M	5%	25%	39%	24%	6%	-
21	REZA Farazi	7%	36%	43%	13%	1%
22	MUNDAHL Morgan	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-
23	AKYAMAC Bora	2%	19%	52%	24%	3%	-
24	MUNDAHL Brandon	-	3%	21%	44%	29%	4%
25	MURPHY Damian	15%	46%	33%	6%	-
26	TRUBETSKI David	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
27	ROZPEDOWSKI Claire	19%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-
28	JOHNSON Maya	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-
29	ROSSI Luciano	46%	42%	12%	1%	-
30	KUMAR Siddharth	8%	33%	40%	16%	2%	-
31	SHAH Arth	11%	35%	38%	15%	1%
32	YU Stephen	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
33	DIAZ Katelyn	7%	43%	38%	11%	1%	-
33	CLAWSON James	60%	35%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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