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Div II Women's Foil

Sunday, March 27, 2022 at 8:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DU Hannah	-	-	1%	10%	39%	50%
2	XIANG Emma	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	25%
3	MING YUE	-	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	10%
3	YANG Lingting	1%	10%	27%	36%	21%	4%
5	RASO Olivia	-	3%	16%	38%	35%	8%
6	ASCHETTINO Aurora	-	2%	17%	46%	29%	5%
7	SIMONOV Dasha	-	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	17%
8	ZHENG Julie	-	-	3%	20%	48%	29%
9	ZHOU Catherine	-	1%	10%	30%	38%	18%	3%
10	FU Qihan	-	-	2%	13%	42%	43%
11	WU Irene M.	-	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
12	TAN Clarisse	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	33%
13	HUANG NATALIE	-	-	2%	19%	47%	31%
14	LENZ Zoe N.	1%	10%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
15	HUBERT AVA CLAIRE	11%	38%	39%	11%	1%	-
16	NEWMAN Ariel	2%	24%	45%	24%	4%	-
17	SLASKI Caroline O.	1%	6%	25%	41%	24%	4%
18	BHAN Zala	-	3%	20%	42%	29%	6%
19	CHARALEL Jessica	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%
20	OLIVEIRA Lavinia M.	-	-	2%	13%	33%	38%	14%
21	CHEN Jasmine	1%	12%	33%	36%	15%	3%	-
22	THIRUVENGADAM Harini	4%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
23	MENON Rhea	17%	44%	32%	6%	-	-
24	GANDLURI Sreehitha (Sarah)	13%	41%	35%	10%	1%	-
25	ROHRING Anna	15%	41%	33%	10%	1%	-
25	ZGOMBIC Emily	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
27	NEUMAN Sophie	1%	14%	36%	33%	14%	2%	-
28	SCARLETT Skye	2%	20%	40%	29%	8%	1%	-
29	DENYSIUK Sumajja	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-
30	DIPAOLO Julia	5%	29%	39%	21%	5%	1%	-
31	HERMES Kathleen A.	< 1%	1%	9%	35%	42%	12%
32	CHENG Isa	77%	21%	2%	-	-	-	-
33	LIU Lucy	53%	39%	8%	1%	-	-
34	PAULUS Isabella	5%	25%	41%	24%	5%	-
35	WANG Sophie	2%	20%	39%	29%	9%	1%	-
36	VELLORE Angelica	33%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
37	BAUER Anna	35%	45%	17%	2%	-	-
38	TAN Junqi	52%	37%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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