Garden State RYC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 10:00 AM

The Sportsplex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TRAUGOT Owen G.	-	-	-	1%	8%	34%	57%
2	LEE Brendan	-	-	1%	9%	40%	49%
3	ZHOU Leon	-	-	-	4%	20%	42%	33%
3	SONG Noel	-	-	5%	29%	48%	18%
5	CHEN Ethan	-	-	3%	20%	40%	30%	6%
6	GHEDINI Luca	-	-	1%	11%	42%	46%
7	RADOSLAVOV Ivan-Asen	-	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
8	WANG Auther	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
9	MILLER Jordan	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%
10	SRINIVASAN Vedant	-	2%	11%	30%	36%	19%	3%
11	WANG Julang	-	3%	15%	32%	33%	15%	2%
12	WANG Brian	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	5%
13	ZHAO Adam	-	1%	7%	29%	47%	17%
14	RUIZ ALMEIDA Muhammad	-	4%	16%	33%	34%	13%
15	TAE Ryan	2%	14%	35%	36%	12%	1%
16	CHENG Austyn	11%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
17	LEE Eugene	-	-	2%	12%	34%	37%	14%
18	CHO Xzander	-	-	4%	21%	38%	29%	8%
19	WONG Jacob W.	1%	6%	21%	35%	27%	9%	1%
20	LIU Eric	-	8%	41%	37%	12%	1%
21	TANG Terry	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	4%
22	KIM Dylan	-	2%	11%	27%	35%	20%	4%
23	O'LEARY Colin	17%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
24	GROSPERRIN Eugene	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-
25	SHANNON Jack	16%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
26	BROOKS Matthew	7%	29%	40%	21%	4%	-
27	CHUNG Ian	35%	47%	15%	2%	-	-
28	ZHANG Lucas	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-
29	TENG Darian	1%	8%	33%	47%	10%	1%
30	JURMAN Therin	6%	24%	36%	25%	9%	1%
31	HIGGASON Hugh	3%	20%	38%	28%	9%	1%	-
32	BHAN Amar	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-	-
33	SIMON Luke	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
34	MELESHKO-PETRAKOV Jonathan	8%	33%	39%	16%	3%	-	-
35	CHAKRAPANI Tejas	27%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
36	WANG Ralph	11%	35%	37%	15%	2%	-	-
37	ROSS Jacob	31%	49%	18%	2%	-	-
38	BAI Brian	24%	44%	26%	6%	-	-
39	SULLIVAN Eamon	4%	33%	40%	19%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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