CT State High School Championships

Women's Foil

Saturday, March 5, 2022 at 9:00 AM

North Haven High School - North Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4
1	ZHOU Catherine	26%	44%	25%	5%
2	THIRUVENGADAM Harini	32%	45%	20%	4%	< 1%
3	WININGER-SIEVE Taylor	7%	42%	40%	11%	1%
4	FULIGNI Isabella	30%	44%	21%	4%	< 1%
5	GAO Zhuning	60%	35%	5%
6	LURIX Elise	31%	45%	21%	3%
7	MCDERMOTT Catherine	-	2%	16%	45%	37%
8	ZHANG Angela	2%	18%	56%	22%	2%
9	ROBINSON Simera	5%	29%	45%	21%
10	MORIN Charlotte	60%	35%	5%	< 1%
11	DODGE Skylar	3%	28%	56%	12%
12	SMITH Taylor	2%	18%	39%	32%	8%
14	STRASSEL Reagan	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
15	MORRISSEY Sara	9%	33%	41%	17%
17	WEILBACHER Leilani	7%	31%	43%	19%
19	ISENBURG Jolie	12%	37%	38%	13%
20	HSIAO Jacqueline	1%	19%	49%	31%
21	NYKYFORCHYN Danielle	11%	49%	39%
23	JUHOLA Kylie	-	5%	23%	43%	28%
24	STONE Makenna	2%	14%	37%	36%	12%
25	RODES Abigail	1%	13%	40%	37%	9%
30	CROWELL Kaitlyn	5%	39%	43%	12%
31	BROWN Malayshia	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%
35	OTANO Ava	2%	16%	37%	34%	10%
38	BLUME Sierra	11%	38%	39%	12%
40	AMENDOLA Kirsten	16%	45%	34%	5%
41	VICTOR Victoria	11%	51%	38%
43	WATROUS Claire	13%	38%	37%	12%
44	MUSCHINSKY Cora	6%	26%	42%	24%	3%
45	JUHOLA Avery	6%	29%	44%	21%
46	LAVOIE Jessica	21%	45%	29%	5%
47	FOLEY Michaela	3%	23%	47%	27%
50	MADDEN McKayla	31%	44%	21%	4%	-
52	DENNISTON Mor	11%	35%	38%	15%	2%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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