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2022 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Saturday, February 5, 2022 at 8:00 AM

ROCKLAND COMMUNITY COLLEGE - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	ZENG Andrew	-	3%	19%	45%	33%
2	TSE Maxwell	-	2%	14%	36%	38%	9%
3	KIM Tae	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
3	NAKAS Levent	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
5	LAI Boden	1%	5%	19%	34%	31%	11%
6	DEGRUCCIO Johnny	4%	22%	39%	28%	7%
7	ROLAND Mackinley	-	8%	35%	42%	15%
8	WUNDER Eli	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	-
9	KOPPENHEFFER Rowan	2%	16%	41%	36%	4%
10	NORMILE Nicholas	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%
11	CZEPLA Andrew	1%	11%	38%	39%	12%
12	PARK Aiden	10%	30%	35%	20%	5%	1%
13	LIU Adam	11%	37%	37%	13%	2%	-
14	DOUBOV Andrew	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
15	MARIN Ayan N.	-	3%	21%	50%	25%
16	COUILLANDEAU Louis	27%	43%	24%	6%	-
17	DONE Kevin	16%	47%	29%	6%	-
18	CAFASSO Alexander	11%	36%	37%	14%	1%
19	PAN Anthony	13%	38%	35%	13%	1%	-
20	SINGLETON Aman	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
20	DYCKMAN Benjamin	3%	24%	40%	26%	7%	1%
22	HANNA Alexander	55%	38%	6%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.